Ravens vs Chiefs Elite NFL Analysis 9/5

Ravens vs Chiefs Elite NFL Analysis 9/5

It’s a long read, but here at Elite Sports Beat I have my first NFL pick of the 2024 season in this matchup. Be sure to read about the details here. In the meantime enjoy my Ravens vs Chiefs Elite NFL Analysis 9/5

When the Ravens Have the Ball: Can They Solve the Chiefs’ Defense?

In the AFC title game, Baltimore’s offense struggled mightily to move the ball and put points on the board. During their first eight drives, only two advanced more than 30 yards, and just one ventured beyond Kansas City’s 49-yard line.

Things finally clicked when the Ravens put together a few promising possessions. A five-play, 63-yard drive that ended with Zay Flowers’ unfortunate fumble near the goal line, a 12-play, 74-yard march that was spoiled by Lamar Jackson’s interception in the end zone. And a nine-play, 29-yard drive that ended with a Justin Tucker field goal. That field goal cut Kansas City’s lead to 10 points, but the Chiefs closed out the game by running out the clock. In the first eight possessions, Baltimore managed just 145 yards on 32 plays (4.5 yards per play). However, in the final three drives, they totaled 166 yards on 29 plays (5.7 yards per play), showing flashes of offensive life.

Baltimore’s running game, though, was nearly nonexistent. Gus Edwards broke off a 15-yard run early on, but he, Justice Hill, and Zay Flowers combined for just 12 yards on seven additional carries. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s relentless pass rush and tight secondary made life difficult for Jackson. Who completed only 20 of 37 passes for 272 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

A New Look, But Will It Help?

Baltimore has undergone significant changes since January, but not all of them seem favorable. Three of the Ravens’ five starting offensive linemen (Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler, and John Simpson) have been replaced, which could affect both pass protection and run blocking. The team also lost key playmaker Odell Beckham Jr. while adding only rookie wideout Devontez Walker.

One major addition, though, is Derrick Henry, who dramatically changes the equation for Baltimore’s running attack. Jackson has always elevated the effectiveness of his backfield partners, and Henry—despite a decline in production over the past two seasons—remains a dangerous threat. If Baltimore’s retooled offensive line can provide even small gaps, Henry is more than capable of exploiting them. Plus, Kansas City’s defense is tougher against the pass than the run. Which could open the door for a more run-heavy game plan this time around.

However, if the Ravens fall behind early or if Kansas City’s run defense contains Henry. Baltimore could find themselves in the same predicament as last year, facing a fierce Chiefs pass rush and sticky coverage.

Exploiting Weaknesses: Is There Hope?

While the Chiefs’ defense remains stout, there may be opportunities for Baltimore to attack, especially in the secondary. L’Jarius Sneed has been replaced by a group of young corners who have yet to stand out as a definitive starter. If Zay Flowers can avoid being shadowed by Kansas City’s top corner, Trent McDuffie, and instead face one of the less experienced defenders—like Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, or Chamarri Conner—he could make a significant impact. Flowers, with his joystick-like agility, is Jackson’s most dangerous pass-catcher, capable of creating separation quickly. If offensive coordinator Todd Monken can scheme Flowers into open space, Jackson could capitalize for big gains.

Similarly, tight end Mark Andrews could be a crucial weapon against Kansas City’s two-high safety looks, which are sometimes vulnerable to passes in the middle of the field. This is where Jackson and Andrews have done their best work. But Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal, along with safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook. Will work to limit Andrews’ impact, particularly on seam routes and crossers.

The Ravens’ Kryptonite: Beating the Blitz

One of the biggest challenges for Baltimore is handling Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz packages. The Chiefs have blitzed Jackson on 39.2% of his dropbacks throughout his career. The second-highest rate he’s faced from any opponent. And the results haven’t been favorable for the Ravens. Jackson has completed just 53% of his passes, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, and converted a mere 26.7% of third-down chances when blitzed by Kansas City. If Baltimore can’t find a way to solve these pressures. It will be tough to get over the hump and dethrone the Chiefs.

In short, the Ravens will need to run the ball effectively, protect Jackson from the blitz, and find creative ways to get Flowers and Andrews involved if they want a shot at redemption. Otherwise, it’ll be another long day against Kansas City’s formidable defense.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball: A New-Look Ravens Defense Faces a Tall Task

On this side of the matchup, expect to see a lot of change, particularly for Baltimore. The Ravens underwent a defensive shakeup in the offseason, losing key coaches and players. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald left to become the head coach in Seattle. While Dennard Wilson took the defensive coordinator job in Tennessee, and Anthony Weaver headed to Miami for the same role. Zach Orr, the former linebackers coach, now leads the defense, with secondary coach Chris Hewitt stepping up as assistant head coach. While some continuity remains, the departure of these key defensive minds has led to a noticeable “brain drain.”

The turnover wasn’t just among the coaching staff. Defensive stalwarts like Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, and Jadeveon Clowney all left in free agency. To fill the gaps, Baltimore brought in Eddie Jackson to replace Stone and drafted edge rusher Adisa Isaac. They also bolstered the secondary with promising young players like Nate Wiggins, T.J. Tampa, and Sanoussi Kane—Wiggins, in particular, shined during preseason. The Ravens still have their core of stars, such as Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, and Nnamdi Madubuike, alongside solid contributors like Marcus Williams, Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, and Kyle Van Noy. There’s no shortage of talent, but the big question is whether the Ravens can reassemble into an elite defense right out of the gate, especially against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

This challenge is heightened by the fact that Kansas City’s offense has also improved. The Chiefs upgraded their left tackle position by drafting Kingsley Suamataia to replace Donovan Smith. They also added first-round pick Xavier Worthy to bolster their receiving corps. After a shaky year from their receivers in 2023, the Chiefs hope for better consistency this season. Rashee Rice, who looks primed for a full-time role, and the explosive Worthy should give Patrick Mahomes more reliable targets. Add in the ever-dangerous Travis Kelce—whose unique chemistry with Mahomes is a constant headache for defenses—and Kansas City’s offense is, once again, poised for fireworks. (Watch for how the Chiefs manage Kelce’s reps this season, as he took more plays off last year to preserve his health.)

The real test for Baltimore will be how quickly they can disrupt Mahomes and Kansas City’s deep passing game, which the Chiefs aim to reinvigorate this season. The Ravens will need to generate consistent pressure up front. If they can’t, Mahomes will have plenty of time to find his revamped receiving corps downfield.

Matching Up Against KC’s Weapons: Big Questions in Baltimore’s Secondary

How Baltimore chooses to handle Kansas City’s offensive weapons will be crucial. Kyle Hamilton seems like the best fit to match up against both Kelce and Rice, but where will he focus? If Hamilton covers Kelce, does Marlon Humphrey take on Rice? If so, does Baltimore have anyone with the speed to keep up with Xavier Worthy on the outside? And if Hamilton isn’t on Kelce, can someone like Ar’Darius Washington handle Rice in the slot despite a significant size disadvantage? The Ravens also have a few more unknowns: how much of a role will rookie Nate Wiggins play in Week 1? How will the Ravens distribute responsibilities between safeties Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson in their three-safety looks? Will Trenton Simpson be able to fill the shoes of Patrick Queen?

Even if Baltimore answers all these questions perfectly, they still have to deal with the wild card: Patrick Mahomes. You can have a great game plan, execute it well, and Mahomes can still beat you. Blitz him, drop into zone, play man coverage—there’s nothing Mahomes and Andy Reid haven’t seen before, and it rarely rattles them.

Can the Ravens Hold Up Against the Run?

Baltimore’s run defense remains a solid unit, but Kansas City’s offensive line—particularly the interior—could gain an advantage against anyone not named Nnamdi Madubuike. If Isiah Pacheco starts finding holes and moving the chains on the ground, it will only make life easier for Mahomes and the passing game. The Ravens will need to tighten up in the trenches to keep Kansas City’s offense from running wild.

In summary, the Ravens defense, though talented, is navigating a lot of change and faces an uphill battle against the well-oiled machine that is Kansas City. They’ll need to bring their best to contain Mahomes and his offense, but even then, it’s a tough ask against the reigning champs.