A Simple Sunday Night Bet: Patriots +3.5

Tonight I’m giving out a free play on Sunday Night Football — and it’s a number I’d rather take than lay.

20* Elite NFL Pick: New England Patriots +3.5 (20*)

Here’s the logic in plain English:

• New England has been money on the road. They’ve won six straight road games, so this isn’t a team that folds outside of Foxborough.
• Baltimore hasn’t been reliable at home. The Ravens have been shaky in this building, and recent results have shown they haven’t consistently rewarded bettors laying points.
• This spread is short for a reason. If Baltimore was truly in “automatic cover” mode at home, you’d see a bigger number. Instead, we’re sitting in that key 3 / 3.5 range, which is exactly where I want the points.

How I’m betting it

New England Patriots +3.5 (20*) — keep it simple.

If this turns into a tight, physical prime-time game (which it usually does), that hook is everything.