Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche: 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction

The NHL’s 2 vs. 3 playoff format might be controversial, criticized by some as repetitive and anticlimactic, but it often guarantees blockbuster first-round matchups. This year’s Western Conference clash between the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche promises exactly that. With Dallas striving to finally advance beyond the Conference Finals and Colorado fielding its deepest roster since its 2022 Stanley Cup victory, this series is a must-watch.

Adding fuel to the fire are intriguing storylines involving significant player movements. Mikko Rantanen, a former Avalanche standout now wearing Stars colors, seeks payback against the team he says blindsided him with a trade. Dallas forward Matt Duchene, forever unpopular in Colorado, will aim to twist the knife once more, while Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin hopes to erase his recent playoff disappointments against his former team.

Season Series Recap

The teams faced off three times this season, with Colorado edging the series 2-1. Each contest marked a unique phase in Colorado’s season, from early injury woes to significant midseason acquisitions. Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston stood out offensively for Dallas, while Colorado’s Cale Makar dominated, including netting an overtime game-winner.

Key Players to Watch
Dallas Stars
  • Matt Duchene: Led the team with 81 points, showing his veteran prowess.
  • Jason Robertson: A top offensive threat with 80 points, though health concerns linger.
  • Wyatt Johnston: Crucial center with impressive playmaking abilities.
  • Roope Hintz and Thomas Harley: Both significantly contributed offensively and defensively.
Colorado Avalanche
  • Nathan MacKinnon: Second-highest NHL scorer with 116 points, crucial in playoff scenarios.
  • Cale Makar: Dominant defenseman with Norris Trophy-level performance (92 points).
  • Gabriel Landeskog: His return from injury provides emotional and physical depth to Colorado’s lineup.
X-Factor: Gabriel Landeskog’s Return

Landeskog’s recovery from significant knee surgery and successful conditioning stint offers Colorado much-needed depth. Even a less-than-perfect Landeskog strengthens their bottom-six forwards and potentially neutralizes Dallas’s depth advantage.

Offensive Comparison

Dallas boasts a potent attack led by Rantanen, Robertson, and Hintz, but the injury status of Tyler Seguin and defenseman Miro Heiskanen poses significant challenges. Duchene and Johnston offer additional scoring depth, but Dallas needs consistent finishing against Colorado’s improved defensive corps.

Colorado counters with MacKinnon’s elite speed and scoring ability, supported by key acquisitions Martin Necas and Brock Nelson. Their power play, improved dramatically after acquiring Necas, will be a major factor against Dallas’s disciplined penalty kill.

Defensive Matchup

Dallas’s defensive capabilities severely weakened following Heiskanen’s injury, struggling to control play at five-on-five. Colorado, conversely, has significantly bolstered its defense, with Devon Toews and Cale Makar anchoring one of the NHL’s most efficient blue lines.

Goaltending Battle

Jake Oettinger, Dallas’s Vezina-caliber goalie, provides a critical advantage with his proven playoff track record. Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood, although inexperienced in playoff situations, has had a solid regular season and offers Colorado a dependable presence in net.

Injury Report

Injuries loom large for both teams. Dallas awaits returns from Tyler Seguin and potentially Miro Heiskanen, whose presence is vital. Colorado faces numerous minor ailments but expects key players like Ross Colton, Josh Manson, Jonathan Drouin, and Gabriel Landeskog to be playoff-ready.

Intangible Factors

Both teams are facing immense pressure. For Dallas, another early exit could signify the end of their championship window due to significant upcoming salary cap challenges. Colorado similarly faces pressure, with looming contract decisions that might fracture their current roster core.

Series Prediction

Despite Dallas’s offensive firepower and strong goaltending, Colorado’s depth, speed, and defensive solidity should prevail, especially considering Dallas’s defensive vulnerabilities without a fully healthy Heiskanen. Expect a competitive yet decisive series.

Final Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win in 6 games

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