Why You Shouldn’t Bet on the NFL Preseason

Why You Shouldn’t Bet on the NFL Preseason

As football fans, the anticipation of a new NFL season is exhilarating. But before the regular season kicks off, we’re treated to a taste of what’s to come with the NFL preseason. While it’s tempting to place a few bets on these games, seasoned bettors know better than to gamble on the preseason. Why You Shouldn’t Bet on the NFL Preseason

1. Unpredictability is the Name of the Game

The NFL preseason is a breeding ground for unpredictability. Unlike the regular season, where teams are fighting tooth and nail for every win, the preseason is more about experimentation and evaluation. Coaches are trying out different strategies, giving backups and rookies a chance to prove themselves, and in many cases, the final score is the last thing on their minds.

Star players? They’re often on the sidelines or playing limited snaps, if at all. Coaches are more concerned with keeping their top athletes healthy and ready for when the games actually matter. This means that the players who do see significant playing time are often those who are still fighting for a spot on the roster. The result? You’re betting on a game where the outcome hinges on the performance of second- and third-string players, most of whom you’ve never heard of.

2. Coaching Without a Plan

In the regular season, coaches meticulously plan each game, studying their opponents and crafting game plans designed to exploit weaknesses. In the preseason, however, it’s a different story. Coaches are less concerned with winning and more focused on assessing their roster. As a result, they often coach “with the flow of the game,” making decisions on the fly rather than sticking to a well-thought-out strategy.

This lack of a concrete plan makes it nearly impossible to predict how a game will unfold. One coach might decide to test out a risky play or a new formation, while another might choose to pull their starters after just a few plays. The outcome of these decisions is highly variable, and as a bettor, you’re left in the dark.

3. A Testing Ground, Not a Battleground

The preseason is essentially a testing ground for NFL teams. Coaches are evaluating players, testing new plays, and experimenting with different combinations of personnel. Winning the game is often a secondary concern. Teams might focus on specific aspects of their game, like improving their running game or testing their pass rush, rather than playing to win.

This experimental nature of the preseason further adds to the unpredictability. Teams aren’t playing with the same intensity or purpose as they would in the regular season, and the outcome of the game is often secondary to the goals of individual player development and team evaluation.

4. The Mirage of Preseason Success

Another pitfall of betting on the preseason is the illusion of success. A team might go undefeated in the preseason, only to struggle once the regular season begins. Preseason success rarely translates into regular-season performance, as the stakes, intensity, and level of competition are vastly different.

Similarly, a poor preseason performance doesn’t necessarily mean a team will struggle in the regular season. Coaches often use the preseason to work out the kinks, and a few losses in August might be just what a team needs to hit their stride in September.

Conclusion: Stay Clear of the NFL Preseason Betting Trap

While the NFL preseason offers a glimpse of what’s to come, it’s far from a reliable indicator of regular-season success. The unpredictability of lineups, the lack of a solid game plan, and the experimental nature of the games make it a risky and often frustrating endeavor for bettors.

Instead of getting caught up in the preseason betting hype, save your bankroll for when the games really matter. The regular season offers more stability, clearer matchups, and a much better chance to make informed, successful bets. So, sit back, enjoy the preseason for what it is—a warm-up act—and keep your betting strategies on the sidelines until the real action begins.

My 2024 Elite College Football and NFL Record can be found here