May 15 Over and Under

Here are the two write-ups:

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals

Friday night in the nation’s capital sets up as one of the messiest pitching matchups on the board, and the run total reflects it. Shane Baz and Zack Littell are two of the harder starters to trust in baseball right now, but calling them equals would be a mistake — and that distinction is where the value lives.

Littell has been historically bad. His 6.94 ERA is one of the worst marks among qualified starters, but the underlying numbers are even more alarming. His xERA sits at 7.61, his FIP at 8.26, and he has surrendered 14 home runs in just 36.1 innings. That is not a pitcher running into bad luck — that is a pitcher getting found out. The Washington bullpen behind him offers little relief, posting a 4.81 ERA on the season.

Baz is struggling in his own right, particularly over his last two May starts where he has posted an 8.71 ERA. He was brought over from Tampa Bay this offseason with high expectations, and those have not been met. But here is the thing — Baz still misses bats at a much higher rate than Littell, sitting at 7.71 strikeouts per nine compared to Littell’s 4.21. His knuckle curve generates genuine swing-and-miss. When he is on, he can limit damage in a way Littell simply cannot.

The offenses in this game are legitimate. Washington ranks second in the league in runs scored, and Baltimore sits eleventh. The Orioles bring real power — Adley Rutschman is hitting .291 with six home runs and an .893 OPS, and Taylor Ward is carrying a .426 OBP. Ward has historically mashed Littell, going 4-for-8 with two home runs against him in his career. That kind of familiarity only adds to the exposure.

The over trend in both team’s games this season is hard to dismiss. Washington’s games have gone over 28 times against just 14 unders. Baltimore’s games sit at 26 overs versus 18 unders. When a number has that kind of directional pull and the starting pitching on both sides is this volatile, the setup speaks for itself. At -122, this is a number worth playing.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels

The Freeway Series opener Friday night at Angel Stadium has the makings of a low-scoring game despite a pitching matchup that, on the surface, might not inspire confidence in either direction.

Blake Snell’s season debut turned heads for the wrong reasons — a 12.00 ERA in his only outing. But a deeper look tells a different story. His stuff was elite. He posted a 119 Stuff+, which would rank second among all major league starters, and his misfortune was extreme. His BABIP on the night was .545, and his left-on-base percentage was just 37.5%. Those are outlier numbers that have no predictive power going forward. What does carry forward is the quality of his arsenal, and it is as good as it has ever been. The Angels are not the lineup to expose a returning ace. Los Angeles is batting .232 as a team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 26%, and the lowest contact rate in the league at just 32% of swings. They could not hit water falling out of a boat right now, and Snell is not going to make it easier.

Jack Kochanowicz has a 3.97 ERA that looks serviceable, but his xERA of 4.99 calls for regression, and his strikeout-to-walk differential is a thin 3.5%. He survives on weak contact, not swing-and-miss, which is a shaky foundation against a Dodgers lineup that is the most disciplined in the sport. Los Angeles carries the sixth-lowest chase rate in baseball, meaning Kochanowicz will not fool them into bad swings to bail him out of trouble.

The trend data on both sides supports the under emphatically. The Dodgers have cashed the under in 19 of their last 30 games, and the Angels have done the same in 25 of their last 35 at home — a 71% clip. That is not noise, that is signal. When Snell is right, he suppresses offense. When the Angels are at the plate, they suppress themselves. The -110 price on this under is about as clean a number as you will find on a Friday night slate.