2026 Chicago Bears Season Outlook

The Chicago Bears enter the 2026 season attempting to prove that their dramatic 2025 breakthrough represented the beginning of sustained contention rather than a one-year surge.

In Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, Chicago improved from 5-12 to 11-6, won the NFC North and defeated Green Bay in the wild-card round before losing to the Rams in the divisional playoffs. Caleb Williams set a Bears single-season record with 3,942 passing yards, and Chicago repeatedly demonstrated an unusual ability to recover from late deficits. The Bears won seven games they trailed in the final two minutes, the most by any NFL team since at least 1970.

That resilience was impressive, but it also creates an important warning for 2026. Teams rarely reproduce an extreme number of late comebacks from one season to the next. Chicago may become a more complete team while finishing with a similar or slightly worse record.

The offseason reflected a belief that the franchise’s contention window has opened. The Bears strengthened the offensive line, remade the safety room and added experienced defensive depth. They also made the difficult decision to trade veteran receiver DJ Moore to Buffalo, placing greater responsibility on Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland.

Offense

Quarterback

Caleb Williams is now the unquestioned foundation of the franchise.

Williams made substantial progress during his first season with Johnson. He became more comfortable working through structured reads, playing on schedule and accepting shorter completions instead of repeatedly attempting to create an explosive play outside the original design. His franchise-record passing total and performance during Chicago’s comeback victories showed that he can produce under pressure.

His natural strengths remain obvious. Williams can change his arm angle, throw accurately while moving, escape pressure and create opportunities after the play has broken down. Johnson’s offense gives him defined answers through motion, play-action, condensed formations and route combinations designed to manipulate linebackers and safeties.

The next step is greater down-to-down consistency. Williams still occasionally holds the ball while searching for a larger play, creating unnecessary sacks or difficult third-down situations. Chicago’s improved protection reduced that problem during 2025, but Williams must continue learning when improvisation is justified and when the correct decision is simply to deliver the ball on time.

Case Keenum returns as the experienced backup after signing a two-year contract. His value lies in preparation, meeting-room support and the ability to operate the offense for a limited period without forcing Johnson to redesign the entire system. Tyson Bagent remains another experienced reserve option if retained through final cuts.

Chicago is now strong at quarterback. The question is no longer whether Williams can become a capable NFL starter. It is whether he can progress into the top group of NFC quarterbacks and carry the Bears through multiple playoff rounds.

Running back

D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai return after forming one of the league’s most productive backfield combinations.

Swift recorded career highs with 1,087 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in 2025. Monangai provided a more physical complement, and they became the NFL’s only pair of running backs to each surpass 750 rushing yards. Their production helped Chicago finish third in the league with 2,456 team rushing yards.

Swift remains the more explosive and versatile option. He can threaten the edge, contribute on screens and option routes and punish linebackers in space. Monangai brings greater contact balance and is better suited to wearing down a defense between the tackles.

Johnson can use the two backs in different ways without making the offense predictable. Swift is not merely a receiving back, and Monangai is not limited to short-yardage carries. That flexibility lets Chicago vary its run concepts while protecting Williams from becoming responsible for the entire offense.

Roschon Johnson, Brittain Brown and Salvon Ahmed provide additional competition and depth. The Bears do not need one back to handle 300 touches, and distributing the workload should help Swift remain effective late in the season.

The backfield is not built around an individual superstar, but it is deep, complementary and well matched to the offensive system.

Wide receiver

The trade of DJ Moore is the defining offensive change.

Chicago sent Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick to Buffalo for a second-round selection. Moore led the Bears’ receivers with 682 yards and six touchdowns in 2025, so his departure removes a durable, proven target who could win after the catch and remain productive through injuries.

The trade represents a calculated bet on Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III.

Odunze was limited by a foot injury during his second season and missed the final five regular-season games, but he returned for the playoffs. He has the size, body control and boundary ability to become Williams’ primary outside receiver. His development against press coverage will determine whether he can fully replace Moore as the player defenses must account for on obvious passing downs.

Burden offers a different style. He is dangerous after the catch, can align in the slot or outside and gives Johnson opportunities to manufacture touches through motion, screens and quick throws. After recording 652 receiving yards as a rookie, he should receive a larger route and target share in 2026.

The Bears also added veteran return specialist Kalif Raymond. Raymond can contribute as a rotational slot receiver and gadget player, although his primary impact should come on special teams. Rookie Zavion Thomas brings exceptional speed and immediate return value. He may begin as a situational vertical receiver rather than a full-time offensive contributor.

Scotty Miller, Jahdae Walker and several younger players will compete for the remaining roster positions.

Chicago’s receiver room has more athletic upside than established production. Odunze and Burden are capable of becoming a strong starting duo, but the offense will feel Moore’s absence if either young receiver is injured or inconsistent.

Tight end

Tight end may be the deepest offensive position on the roster.

Colston Loveland emerged as one of the NFL’s better young tight ends during his rookie season. He caught 58 passes for 713 yards and six touchdowns, becoming the first Bears rookie to lead the team in receiving yards since Willie Gault and the first rookie tight end to do so since Mike Ditka.

Loveland’s route-running ability allows Johnson to use him as more than an attached tight end. He can operate from the slot, move across the formation and threaten the intermediate seams. His presence should become even more important following Moore’s departure.

Cole Kmet remains a dependable blocker and experienced receiver. Kmet’s willingness to handle physical in-line assignments allows Loveland to move around the formation and draw more favorable matchups.

Chicago selected Stanford tight end Sam Roush with the 69th overall pick. Roush can play attached to the formation or off the ball, and the Bears believe his versatility fits an offense that frequently uses two- and three-tight-end personnel.

Loveland, Kmet and Roush give Johnson significant personnel flexibility. Chicago can line up in a heavy formation and still send multiple capable receivers into routes. That makes it difficult for opponents to determine whether the Bears intend to run or pass based on personnel.

Offensive line

The offensive line became one of Chicago’s greatest strengths in 2025.

The Bears finished third in both rushing yards per game and fewest sacks allowed. Joe Thuney was named first-team All-Pro and won the inaugural Protector of the Year award, while Darnell Wright earned second-team All-Pro recognition.

The projected line is:

• Left tackle: Jedrick Wills Jr. or Braxton Jones
• Left guard: Joe Thuney
• Center: Garrett Bradbury
• Right guard: Jonah Jackson
• Right tackle: Darnell Wright

Thuney remains the unit’s leader and one of the league’s best interior linemen. His intelligence, balance and consistency stabilize the protection in front of Williams.

Wright has developed into an excellent right tackle and a major part of Chicago’s rushing identity. Johnson acknowledged that the offense has become somewhat right-handed because of Wright’s ability to displace defenders at the point of attack.

The primary change comes at center. Drew Dalman unexpectedly retired at 27, prompting Chicago to trade a 2027 fifth-round pick to New England for Garrett Bradbury. Bradbury started all 17 games for the Patriots during their Super Bowl season and brings extensive experience communicating protections to a young quarterback.

Jonah Jackson returns at right guard after a strong first season in Chicago. The left-tackle competition includes Wills, Braxton Jones and developmental alternatives. Wills offers first-round pedigree and starting experience but must demonstrate health and consistency.

Second-round rookie Logan Jones played across the offensive line at Iowa and provides a possible long-term answer at center or guard. He may not begin the season as a starter, but his versatility gives Chicago important insurance behind three veteran interior linemen.

This should remain a top-10 line. The principal concerns are the transition at center and uncertainty at left tackle.

Defense

Defensive line and edge rushers

Montez Sweat remains the most established pass rusher on the roster.

Sweat can win with length and power and is capable of setting the edge against the run, but Chicago needs more consistent pressure around him. The defense cannot depend on Sweat defeating double teams while the rest of the front fails to create disruption.

Austin Booker showed encouraging development late in 2025. He recorded 4.5 sacks in 10 games after returning from a preseason knee injury, including 3.5 sacks during Weeks 15-17 and another sack in the wild-card victory over Green Bay. He now has a legitimate opportunity to become the starting edge defender opposite Sweat.

Dayo Odeyingbo is returning from an Achilles injury suffered midway through last season. His recovery is important because he can play on the edge in base formations and slide inside in passing situations. Daniel Hardy and Jonathan Garvin provide rotational depth.

The interior is led by Gervon Dexter Sr. and Grady Jarrett. Dexter produced a career-best six sacks while starting every game in 2025. Jarrett missed time with a knee issue but returned healthy during the offseason and remains valuable as a penetrating veteran presence.

Neville Gallimore was added after recording career highs with 38 tackles and 3.5 sacks for Indianapolis. Kentavius Street and James Lynch supply experienced depth. Sixth-round rookie Jordan van den Berg recorded 11 tackles for loss during his final college season and could develop into an energetic rotational interior defender.

The front is deep, but it lacks a second proven elite pass rusher. Chicago’s defensive ceiling depends heavily on Booker’s growth and Odeyingbo’s recovery.

Linebacker

The Bears restructured the linebacker room after Tremaine Edmunds signed with the Giants.

T.J. Edwards returns as the most established starter. Edwards is instinctive against the run, understands route combinations and provides communication experience in the middle of the defense.

Chicago signed Devin Bush after his career-best season in Cleveland. Bush started all 17 games in 2025 and recorded 124 tackles, three interceptions, eight passes defensed, two sacks and two forced fumbles. His athleticism gives defensive coordinator Dennis Allen another option in coverage and pursuit.

Noah Sewell, D’Marco Jackson and returning Bear Jack Sanborn will compete for snaps alongside Edwards and Bush. Sanborn provides familiarity and physical run defense, while Sewell has greater athletic upside.

Fifth-round rookie Keyshaun Elliott offers developmental depth and a likely special-teams role.

The group should be faster than the previous unit but may be less imposing physically without Edmunds. Coverage consistency against tight ends and receiving backs will be an important early-season test.

Cornerback

A healthy Jaylon Johnson remains Chicago’s best defensive back.

Johnson earned consecutive Pro Bowl selections in 2023 and 2024 but underwent core-muscle surgery and was limited to seven games last season. His return to full strength would significantly improve the defense’s ability to match elite outside receivers.

Kyler Gordon also endured an injury-disrupted season, appearing in only three regular-season games before returning for the playoffs. Gordon is an important nickel defender who can cover, blitz and support the run.

Tyrique Stevenson returns after producing 10 pass breakups and two forced fumbles in 13 appearances. He remains physically talented but must become more consistent with positioning and situational discipline.

Fourth-round rookie Malik Muhammad offers speed, length and the ability to play man or zone coverage. Terell Smith returns from a season-ending knee injury, while Josh Blackwell and Jaylon Jones provide depth and special-teams value.

The cornerback group could be excellent if Johnson and Gordon remain healthy. Last season demonstrated how quickly its quality declines when both are unavailable.

Safety

Chicago completely reshaped the top of the safety depth chart.

Kevin Byard III signed with New England, while Jaquan Brisker joined Pittsburgh. The Bears replaced them by signing Coby Bryant and selecting Dillon Thieneman with the 25th overall pick.

Bryant arrives from Seattle after helping the Seahawks win Super Bowl LX. He recorded four interceptions and seven pass breakups in 2025 and has produced all seven of his career interceptions since moving from cornerback to safety. His coverage background gives Allen flexibility to use split-safety looks or match him against slot receivers.

Thieneman is one of the most important rookies on the roster. He brings speed, range, tackling production and strong instincts around the football. Chicago may use him as a deep safety, rotate him toward the line of scrimmage or allow him to match up with tight ends depending on the package.

Cam Lewis adds versatility as a safety, nickel defender and special-teams contributor. Elijah Hicks supplies experienced depth.

The Bryant-Thieneman combination is more athletic in coverage than the previous starting pair, but it must quickly develop communication and trust. Safety errors can produce immediate explosive plays, particularly in a division containing strong offensive coaching.

Special teams

Cairo Santos remains the kicker after another season in which he delivered several critical late-game field goals. His accuracy and experience in difficult Chicago conditions make him a stabilizing presence.

Tory Taylor returns at punter after setting a franchise record with a 47.8-yard gross average. Taylor’s ability to control field position is especially valuable when Chicago’s defense is protecting a narrow lead.

The Bears added two dangerous return specialists. Kalif Raymond has averaged 11.3 yards per punt return over the past five seasons and has earned second-team All-Pro recognition twice. Rookie Zavion Thomas ran a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and offers kickoff-return potential.

Josh Blackwell, Elijah Hicks, Daniel Hardy and several reserve linebackers should again anchor the coverage units.

Chicago’s special teams should be a strength, particularly in the kicking and return phases.

Most important offseason additions

• S Coby Bryant: Experienced starter and proven ball producer.
• LB Devin Bush: Athletic replacement for Tremaine Edmunds.
• C Garrett Bradbury: Veteran center acquired from New England.
• OT Jedrick Wills Jr.: Starting experience and left-tackle competition.
• WR/KR Kalif Raymond: High-level return specialist and rotational receiver.
• DT Neville Gallimore: Experienced interior depth.
• DB Cam Lewis: Versatile secondary and special-teams contributor.
• DL Kentavius Street: Rotational defensive-line experience.
• LB Jack Sanborn: Familiar, physical linebacker depth.

Most important departures

• WR DJ Moore: Traded to Buffalo.
• S Kevin Byard III: Signed with New England.
• S Jaquan Brisker: Signed with Pittsburgh.
• LB Tremaine Edmunds: Signed with the Giants.
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus: Signed with Atlanta.
• DE Dominique Robinson: Signed with Houston.
• C Drew Dalman: Retired.

Moore is the most consequential loss because Chicago has not replaced him with another established No. 1 receiver. The Bears are relying on younger players to absorb his targets collectively.

Draft-class outlook

Chicago selected seven players:

Round	Player	Position	Projected early role
1	Dillon Thieneman	Safety	Starting-safety competition
2	Logan Jones	Offensive line	Interior reserve; future starter
3	Sam Roush	Tight end	Third tight end and heavy personnel
3	Zavion Thomas	Receiver/returner	Return specialist and vertical depth
4	Malik Muhammad	Cornerback	Reserve corner and special teams
5	Keyshaun Elliott	Linebacker	Special teams and developmental defense
6	Jordan van den Berg	Defensive line	Rotational interior development

The class is unusually deep for a defending division champion. Thieneman could start immediately, while Thomas should have a prominent special-teams role. Jones and Roush may not begin as starters but provide high-value depth at positions central to Johnson’s offense.

Thieneman is the rookie most likely to influence the defense immediately. Logan Jones may ultimately become the class’s most important long-term player if he develops into Bradbury’s successor at center.

Schedule assessment

Chicago’s schedule is more difficult than its opening stretch initially suggests.

The Bears begin with a road game against Carolina before playing three consecutive home games. That gives them an opportunity to establish an early winning record, although the homestand includes Philadelphia.

The schedule becomes significantly harder in the middle. Chicago plays New England, Seattle and Tampa Bay in three consecutive primetime games before its Week 10 bye. The Seattle matchup is on the road and follows a Thursday game, creating extra preparation time but also placing the Bears against the defending champion in a hostile environment.

The Week 10 bye is well positioned. Afterward, Chicago has manageable home games but also difficult road assignments at Detroit, Miami and Buffalo.

The final month will determine the division race. Chicago travels to Buffalo in Week 15, then closes with three consecutive NFC North games, including Green Bay on Christmas Day and Detroit the following week. The Bears finish on the road against Minnesota.

The NFC North remains competitive. Detroit possesses an explosive roster, Green Bay remains dangerous and Minnesota is capable of creating difficult divisional matchups. Chicago will not have many forgiving weeks inside the division.

The schedule contains enough manageable games for the Bears to return to the postseason, but the combination of elite opponents, primetime exposure and a divisional closing stretch makes another 11-win season difficult.

Final prediction

Projected record: 10-7

Projected NFC North finish: Second place

Chicago is good enough to repeat as division champion, but Detroit enters the season with slightly more established high-end talent across both lines. Green Bay should also remain involved in the playoff race.

The Bears’ most realistic range is approximately 8-9 to 12-5.

The upper end becomes attainable if Williams makes another substantial jump, Odunze develops into a true No. 1 receiver and the defense remains healthy. The lower end becomes possible if Chicago’s close-game performance regresses sharply and the pass rush fails to improve.

Postseason probabilities

Outcome	Estimated probability
Make the playoffs	64%
Win the NFC North	31%
Earn a top-two NFC seed	15%
Win first playoff game	52% if participating
Win divisional round	34% if participating
Win NFC Championship Game	23% if participating
Win Super Bowl LXI	14% if participating
Overall probability of winning Super Bowl LXI	4%

These are analytical preseason estimates rather than sportsbook odds.

Most likely postseason result

The most likely outcome is a wild-card berth followed by either a first-round victory or a divisional-round exit.

Chicago has the quarterback and offensive coaching required to win a postseason game. Williams has already demonstrated unusual late-game confidence, and Johnson can create favorable matchups through his running game, tight ends and formation variety.

The Bears’ postseason ceiling will depend on their defense. They may struggle against elite quarterbacks if the front four cannot generate pressure without frequent blitzing. A healthy Johnson and Gordon would allow Allen to be more aggressive, but Chicago still needs Sweat, Booker and the interior line to consistently affect the pocket.

The Bears can reach the NFC Championship Game, but they would likely need to defeat at least one of Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia or another elite NFC opponent on the road.

Overall verdict

Chicago is no longer rebuilding. The Bears are a credible NFC contender built around a young quarterback and one of the league’s most creative offensive coaches.

Their greatest strengths are:

• Caleb Williams’ continued development.
• Ben Johnson’s offensive design.
• A top-level offensive line.
• A deep and versatile tight-end group.
• A productive two-back rotation.
• Young receiving upside through Odunze and Burden.
• A potentially strong starting secondary.
• Reliable kicking and punting.
• Improved overall roster depth.

The primary risks are:

• Regression in one-score and late-comeback games.
• Replacing DJ Moore’s dependable production.
• A lack of proven pass rush opposite Montez Sweat.
• Injury recoveries involving Dayo Odeyingbo and several defensive backs.
• A new starting center.
• Uncertainty at left tackle.
• Two new starting safeties learning to communicate.
• A demanding NFC North race.
• A difficult late-season schedule.

Final forecast: 10-7, second in the NFC North and a wild-card berth.

The Bears are likely to remain in playoff contention throughout the season. Their most probable result is another trip to the divisional round, but an NFC Championship Game appearance becomes realistic if Williams enters the league’s upper quarterback tier and the defense produces more consistent pressure.