2026 Las Vegas Raiders Season Outlook

The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2026 season beginning a new era after finishing 3-14 with a minus-191 point differential in 2025.

Las Vegas ranked near the bottom of the NFL offensively, scored only 241 points and received inconsistent quarterback play throughout the season. The Raiders nevertheless retained several legitimate building blocks in Maxx Crosby, Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The organization responded aggressively. Klint Kubiak became head coach, Kirk Cousins was signed as a veteran quarterback, Tyler Linderbaum arrived to anchor the offensive line and the defense added Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Kwity Paye and Taron Johnson. Las Vegas then selected Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall and used eight of its remaining nine draft choices on offensive linemen, defensive players and another running back.

The Raiders should be significantly better. They now have more competent quarterback options, a potentially excellent running game and a defense with greater speed and depth at every level.

They remain unlikely to challenge immediately for the AFC West because Los Angeles, Denver and Kansas City possess more established rosters. The primary objective is establishing Mendoza as the long-term quarterback while building an offense capable of supporting him.

Offense

Quarterback

Las Vegas has three legitimate quarterback candidates:

• Kirk Cousins
• Fernando Mendoza
• Aidan O’Connell

Cousins is the most likely Week 1 starter.

The four-time Pro Bowler enters his 15th NFL season with 44,700 career passing yards and 298 touchdown passes. He also has an established relationship with Kubiak and experience operating the movement-based, play-action concepts that should form the foundation of the Raiders’ offense.

Cousins gives Las Vegas several things it lacked in 2025:

• Dependable pre-snap identification.
• Accurate play-action passing.
• Greater anticipation over the middle.
• A veteran capable of organizing protections.
• Leadership for a young offensive group.
• A quarterback who can consistently deliver the ball to Bowers.

The concern is declining mobility and durability. Cousins is most effective from a controlled platform. Interior pressure or protection breakdowns can prevent him from reaching the deeper portions of Kubiak’s route combinations.

That makes the offensive line central to his viability.

Fernando Mendoza represents the franchise’s future.

The Raiders selected Mendoza first overall after he completed his college career with 8,247 passing yards, 71 touchdowns and 22 interceptions across 35 starts. His final season came at Indiana after three years at California.

Mendoza brings:

• Prototypical size at approximately 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds.
• Adequate NFL arm strength.
• Experience operating under center.
• Strong pocket toughness.
• Intelligence and leadership.
• The ability to make rhythm throws within structure.
• Enough mobility to execute bootlegs and movement passes.

He is not merely a developmental late-round selection. As the first overall pick, Mendoza will eventually be expected to start and become the player around whom the offense is built.

Las Vegas does not need to rush him. The team deliberately limited and managed his offseason progression while Cousins generally commanded the veteran offense. Coaches have indicated that Cousins, Mendoza and O’Connell will receive first-team opportunities during training camp.

O’Connell remains a credible reserve. He understands the organization, has NFL starting experience and can operate effectively when the protection is stable. His most likely role is as the third quarterback or trade candidate unless he substantially outperforms expectations during camp.

The ideal outcome is straightforward:

• Cousins starts the opening portion of the season.
• Mendoza develops without immediate pressure.
• Las Vegas transitions to Mendoza when he is ready or when the team is no longer in realistic playoff contention.

Starting Mendoza immediately would not necessarily be a mistake, but the offensive line’s uncertainty creates a strong argument for patience.

Running back and fullback

Ashton Jeanty is expected to become the centerpiece of the offense.

Jeanty rushed for 975 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie despite averaging only 3.7 yards per carry behind an inconsistent line. He also forced 71 missed tackles and generated 863 yards after contact, both top-10 figures among NFL runners.

Those numbers suggest that Jeanty’s modest rushing average reflected the environment more than his individual performance.

His strengths include:

• Exceptional contact balance.
• Rapid acceleration through small openings.
• Lateral agility in crowded areas.
• Receiving ability.
• The strength to finish carries.
• Enough patience to thrive in Kubiak’s zone-running system.

Kubiak should use Jeanty on outside-zone concepts that allow him to press the front and choose a cutback. The addition of Linderbaum should also create more second-level access through the middle.

Fourth-round rookie Mike Washington Jr. provides an unusually athletic complement. Washington measured approximately 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds but ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash, the fastest time among running backs at the 2026 combine.

Washington can become:

• A physical change-of-pace runner.
• A short-yardage option.
• A kickoff-coverage player.
• A developmental receiver.
• A second back capable of sharing the field with Jeanty.

Dylan Laube remains a special-teams and reserve option, while undrafted rookie Roman Hemby adds further competition.

Connor Heyward was signed to fill the fullback and hybrid role. His versatility should allow Las Vegas to move between one-back, two-back and multiple-tight-end formations without making the play obvious.

The Jeanty-Washington pairing has the potential to become one of the AFC’s better young backfields. The Raiders should still avoid overworking Jeanty simply because he is the most accomplished offensive skill player outside Bowers.

Wide receiver

Wide receiver is the offense’s largest skill-position uncertainty.

Tre Tucker led Las Vegas with 696 receiving yards in 2025 and caught a career-high five touchdown passes. He emerged partly because Bowers missed time and Jakobi Meyers was traded during the season.

Tucker provides legitimate vertical speed and improved route-running ability. He can become a productive part of Kubiak’s offense, but asking him to function as a conventional high-volume No. 1 receiver would be aggressive.

Jalen Nailor was the most important veteran addition. He spent four seasons in Minnesota and developed a reputation as an efficient deep threat despite playing behind several prominent receivers.

Nailor gives the Raiders:

• Vertical acceleration.
• Experience in a related offensive system.
• The ability to win through contact.
• Kick-return value.
• Another receiver capable of clearing space for Bowers.

Jack Bech enters his second season as a potential possession target. His size, toughness and willingness to work over the middle give him a different profile from Tucker and Nailor.

Dont’e Thornton Jr. supplies additional outside size and vertical potential. Malik Benson, selected in the sixth round, ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash and adds another developmental speed option.

The projected hierarchy is:

1. Jalen Nailor or Tre Tucker
2. The remaining Nailor-Tucker option
3. Jack Bech
4. Dont’e Thornton Jr.
5. Malik Benson, Phillip Dorsett II or a special-teams receiver

The Raiders have speed, but they lack a proven high-volume outside receiver. That could cause defenses to concentrate on Bowers and force the receivers to win isolated matchups.

A true breakout from Bech or Thornton would substantially improve the offense’s ceiling.

Tight end

Tight end is the Raiders’ strongest offensive position.

Brock Bowers remains one of the NFL’s premier young players. Even while injuries limited him to 12 games in 2025, he caught 64 passes for 680 yards and seven touchdowns. He was selected to the Pro Bowl for a second consecutive season.

Bowers can be used as:

• An attached tight end.
• A slot receiver.
• An outside matchup target.
• A motion player.
• A screen and yards-after-catch weapon.
• A red-zone option.
• The primary progression on third down.

Kubiak’s system should be particularly favorable. Play-action and pre-snap movement can create free releases and force linebackers to hesitate before covering Bowers.

Michael Mayer remains an important complement. He gives Las Vegas a more conventional in-line blocker and a second receiving threat in heavier personnel. Raiders coverage has described the Bowers-Mayer combination as the defining feature of the tight-end room.

Ian Thomas returns as an experienced reserve, while Patrick Gurd provides blocking and special-teams competition.

Las Vegas can build much of its offense around two-tight-end formations:

• Bowers can move into the slot.
• Mayer can remain attached as a blocker.
• Jeanty can run against lighter boxes.
• Cousins or Mendoza can use play-action.
• Defenses must choose between base personnel and nickel coverage.

Bowers has a realistic chance to lead the Raiders in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns.

Offensive line

The offensive line has improved but remains unsettled at three positions.

Only two starters appear firmly established:

• Left tackle: Kolton Miller
• Center: Tyler Linderbaum

The Raiders’ own camp analysis identified Miller and Linderbaum as the two clear starters, with competition occurring throughout the remaining positions.

Miller remains a high-quality blindside protector when healthy. His 2025 season ended after an ankle injury in Week 4, so his availability is one of the most important preseason variables.

Linderbaum was the largest offensive-line acquisition. The three-time Pro Bowl center has missed only two games during his NFL career and gives Las Vegas a combination of athleticism, strength, communication and durability.

The remaining candidates include:

• Jackson Powers-Johnson.
• Spencer Burford.
• Jordan Meredith.
• Caleb Rogers.
• Charles Grant.
• Third-round rookie Trey Zuhn III.
• Will Putnam.
• Several developmental tackles and guards.

Powers-Johnson can play center or guard and should remain one of the five best linemen if healthy. His most logical position is guard now that Linderbaum has arrived.

Burford brings starting experience and positional versatility. Zuhn is a massive 6-foot-7, 319-pound rookie with an opportunity to compete immediately at guard.

A reasonable projected lineup is:

• Left tackle: Kolton Miller
• Left guard: Jackson Powers-Johnson
• Center: Tyler Linderbaum
• Right guard: Spencer Burford or Trey Zuhn III
• Right tackle: Caleb Rogers, Charles Grant or another camp winner

Right tackle is the most obvious concern.

The Raiders’ rushing game should improve because Linderbaum is an excellent movement blocker and Kubiak’s system should create more favorable angles. Pass protection is more uncertain because Miller is returning from injury and the entire right side may change.

An average offensive line would make Las Vegas dramatically more functional. Another injury-filled season would make it difficult to protect Cousins or develop Mendoza responsibly.

Defense

Defensive identity

The defense is shifting toward a 3-4-based structure under coordinator Rob Leonard.

That system should allow Las Vegas to move Crosby, Paye, Koonce, Dean and Walker throughout the formation. The objective is not merely to blitz more frequently. It is to make protections identify the rushers after the quarterback reaches the line.

The unit has significantly greater speed and experience than last year’s defense.

Defensive line and edge rush

Maxx Crosby remains the centerpiece.

Crosby recorded 10 sacks and 28 tackles for loss in 15 games during 2025. His tackle-for-loss total ranked second in the NFL, and ESPN’s analytics credited him with the league’s best run-stop win rate among edge defenders.

Crosby’s value extends beyond sacks. He consistently:

• Disrupts outside runs.
• Forces quarterbacks to move.
• Draws protection adjustments.
• Creates opportunities for teammates.
• Plays with unusually high effort.
• Sets the competitive standard for the defense.

Kwity Paye was signed to provide a more complete complement. Paye recorded a 27 percent run-stop win rate in 2025, 10th among qualifying edge defenders, and has accumulated 30.5 career sacks and 50 quarterback hits.

Paye can play the run, rush from multiple alignments and reduce some of the attention directed toward Crosby.

Malcolm Koonce was re-signed after contributing 4.5 sacks in 2025. His health is important because he gives Las Vegas another speed rusher in obvious passing situations.

Third-round rookie Keyron Crawford adds developmental edge depth.

The interior rotation includes:

• Adam Butler.
• Thomas Booker IV.
• Jonah Laulu.
• Tonka Hemingway.
• Benito Jones.
• JJ Pegues.
• Seventh-round rookie Brandon Cleveland.

The interior does not contain a proven elite pass rusher. Crosby, Paye and Koonce may create pressure from outside, but quarterbacks will escape if the tackles cannot collapse the middle.

Las Vegas needs Laulu, Hemingway or one of the other younger interior players to take a meaningful step.

Linebacker

Linebacker is the defense’s most transformed position.

Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker were signed to become the central pairing. The former Georgia teammates enter the prime of their careers and give the Raiders a combination of speed, physicality and coverage potential.

Walker has recorded more than 100 tackles in each of his first four NFL seasons. At approximately 6-foot-4 and 245 pounds, he can play off the ball, align on the edge and contribute as a blitzer.

Dean is smaller but more instinctive. He can diagnose plays rapidly, pressure through interior gaps and contribute in coverage. Las Vegas managed him cautiously during offseason practices as he prepared for training camp.

Tommy Eichenberg remains an important young player. He set a franchise record with 23 special-teams tackles in 2025 and began receiving more defensive work late in the season.

The supporting group includes:

• Cameron McGrone.
• Segun Olubi.
• Cody Lindenberg.
• Brennan Jackson.
• Xavian Sorey Jr.
• Chris Thomas.

The Dean-Walker pairing should improve the defense against athletic quarterbacks, screens and intermediate crossing routes. Health is the concern. Dean has missed time previously, and the defense’s communication could suffer if either starter is unavailable.

Cornerback

The Raiders invested heavily in the secondary.

Taron Johnson was acquired in a trade after spending eight seasons in Buffalo. A 2023 second-team All-Pro, Johnson has six career interceptions, eight sacks and 48 passes defensed and is one of the league’s most established nickel corners.

His presence immediately clarifies one role.

Eric Stokes returns as an outside-corner candidate. His length and speed remain valuable, though he must become more consistent from snap to snap.

Darien Porter enters his second season after receiving substantial offseason work. He has the physical traits to become a long-term outside starter.

The draft added:

• Jermod McCoy in the fourth round.
• Hezekiah Masses in the fifth round.

McCoy recorded six interceptions and 16 passes defensed over 25 college games. Masses brings additional size and 4.46 speed.

The likely early structure is:

• Stokes or Porter outside.
• McCoy competing for the other outside role.
• Taron Johnson in the slot.
• Masses and the remaining veterans providing depth.

The room has athleticism but limited proven outside-corner production. Johnson can stabilize the slot, but AFC West offenses will aggressively test the boundary corners.

Safety

Jeremy Chinn is the veteran leader.

Chinn recorded 114 tackles in 2025 and continues to offer the versatility to play safety, linebacker-like assignments and pressure roles.

Second-round rookie Treydan Stukes brings exceptional speed after running a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. The Raiders selected him 38th overall and should give him an immediate opportunity to earn defensive snaps.

Stukes can potentially play:

• Deep safety.
• Slot coverage.
• Matchup assignments.
• Robber coverage.
• Pressure packages.
• Special teams.

Fifth-round rookie Dalton Johnson adds another fast, physical option. Tristin McCollum returns as an experienced reserve and special-teams contributor.

The Raiders may use Chinn close to the line while Stukes or another safety handles more deep coverage. That arrangement would maximize Chinn’s tackling and disguise ability.

The safety room has upside but may experience rookie communication mistakes, particularly against Kansas City, Buffalo, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Special teams

AJ Cole remains one of the NFL’s best punters.

Cole has earned two first-team All-Pro selections and three Pro Bowl appearances since 2021. He gives Las Vegas consistent field-position value and should remain one of the team’s clearest strengths.

Kicker is undergoing a change.

Veteran Matt Gay will compete with undrafted rookie Kansei Matsuzawa. The Raiders also have competition at long snapper between Alex Ward and rookie Tyler Duzansky.

Gay has the experience advantage, but Las Vegas appears prepared to make the competition meaningful.

The return jobs are also open. Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Malik Benson, Dylan Laube and several young defensive backs have relevant experience or athletic traits.

Laube averaged 25.9 yards per kickoff return in 2025, while Nailor averaged 32.2 yards on kickoff returns.

Punter is a major strength. Kicker, long snapper and returner are less settled.

Most important offseason additions

• QB Kirk Cousins: Veteran bridge and mentor for Mendoza.
• QB Fernando Mendoza: First overall pick and potential franchise quarterback.
• C Tyler Linderbaum: Elite center and offensive-line organizer.
• LB Nakobe Dean: Instinctive three-down linebacker.
• LB Quay Walker: Athletic, versatile second-level defender.
• DE Kwity Paye: Complete edge defender opposite Crosby.
• CB Taron Johnson: Proven All-Pro-caliber nickel corner.
• WR Jalen Nailor: Vertical receiving and return threat.
• G Spencer Burford: Starting offensive-line competition.
• FB Connor Heyward: Hybrid blocker and offensive formation piece.
• K Matt Gay: Veteran kicking candidate.
• S Treydan Stukes: Immediate defensive and special-teams contributor.

Most important departures and changes

The most consequential changes are structural:

• The previous quarterback arrangement has been replaced by Cousins and Mendoza.
• The offensive line has been rebuilt around Linderbaum.
• The linebacker room has been almost entirely reconstructed.
• The secondary has added Johnson and four draft choices.
• The coaching staff has installed new offensive and defensive systems.

Las Vegas also moved on from several veterans who no longer fit the timeline of a team centered on Mendoza, Jeanty, Bowers and its young secondary.

The Raiders are no longer trying to salvage the roster that produced the 3-14 season. They are building a new one.

Draft-class outlook

Las Vegas selected 10 players:

Round	Player	Position	Projected early role
1	Fernando Mendoza	Quarterback	Developmental starter and franchise centerpiece
2	Treydan Stukes	Safety	Starting competition and sub-packages
3	Keyron Crawford	Defensive end	Rotational edge development
3	Trey Zuhn III	Guard	Starting guard competition
4	Jermod McCoy	Cornerback	Outside-corner competition
4	Mike Washington Jr.	Running back	Complement to Jeanty
5	Dalton Johnson	Safety	Special teams and defensive depth
5	Hezekiah Masses	Cornerback	Developmental outside corner
6	Malik Benson	Wide receiver	Speed and return competition
7	Brandon Cleveland	Defensive tackle	Interior-line development

Mendoza will define the class regardless of what the other nine players accomplish.

Stukes has the clearest path to an immediate defensive role. Zuhn and McCoy could also become starters during their rookie seasons because Las Vegas has open competitions at guard and cornerback.

Washington provides unusual value as a fourth-round athlete behind Jeanty. The Raiders can develop him without placing the entire rushing workload on him immediately.

This is a deep class with several possible contributors, but its long-term grade will depend overwhelmingly on whether Mendoza becomes a quality NFL starter.

Schedule assessment

Las Vegas has a difficult middle schedule and a more manageable closing stretch.

The Raiders open at home against Miami before traveling to face the Chargers and New Orleans. They then host Kansas City before consecutive games against New England, Buffalo and the Rams.

Weeks 4 through 11 are particularly challenging:

• Kansas City
• At New England
• Buffalo
• Los Angeles Rams
• At New York Jets
• At San Francisco
• Seattle
• At Denver

That sequence contains multiple playoff contenders and several strong defensive fronts capable of testing Las Vegas’ offensive line.

The Week 13 bye is well positioned after a road game in Cleveland.

The schedule becomes more favorable afterward. Las Vegas finishes with home games against the Chargers, Denver and Tennessee before traveling to Arizona.

Important schedule factors include:

• Three of the first five games on the road.
• Kansas City, New England, Buffalo and the Rams consecutively.
• Back-to-back games against the 49ers and Seahawks.
• A late but useful Week 13 bye.
• Three straight home games after the bye.
• Four consecutive games in the western United States to finish.
• Six AFC West games against three teams with playoff expectations.

The Raiders need to win early against Miami or New Orleans because the middle of the schedule could produce an extended losing streak.

Final prediction

Projected record: 7-10

Projected AFC West finish: Fourth place

Las Vegas is meaningfully improved, but it plays in one of the NFL’s strongest divisions.

The Chargers project as an 11-win contender. Denver has an excellent defense and substantial roster continuity. Kansas City remains dangerous as long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback.

The Raiders are developing a rookie quarterback, rebuilding their offensive line and integrating numerous new defensive starters.

Their realistic range is approximately 5-12 to 9-8.

The upper end becomes attainable if:

• Cousins provides efficient veteran quarterback play.
• Mendoza develops quickly enough to contribute.
• Jeanty becomes a top-tier NFL runner.
• Bowers remains healthy.
• Miller and Powers-Johnson avoid further injuries.
• Linderbaum stabilizes the entire line.
• Crosby and Paye become an elite edge pairing.
• Dean and Walker remain healthy.
• One young outside corner emerges.

The lower end becomes possible if Cousins declines, Mendoza is forced into the lineup too early or the offensive line fails to identify a dependable right tackle.

Postseason probabilities

Outcome	Estimated probability
Make the playoffs	19%
Win the AFC West	5%
Earn a top-two AFC seed	Below 1%
Win first playoff game	28% if participating
Win divisional round	12% if participating
Win AFC Championship Game	5% if participating
Win Super Bowl LXI	2% if participating
Overall probability of winning Super Bowl LXI	Below 1%

These are analytical preseason estimates rather than sportsbook odds.

Most likely postseason result

The most likely outcome is a substantially improved season that ends outside the playoffs but provides evidence that the rebuild is progressing.

Las Vegas has a credible formula for becoming competitive:

• Run through Jeanty.
• Feature Bowers heavily.
• Use Cousins to stabilize the passing game.
• Develop Mendoza gradually.
• Control the edges with Crosby and Paye.
• Use Dean and Walker aggressively.
• Win field position through Cole.

The problem is that the AFC West and broader AFC playoff field are too strong for a developing team to survive many early mistakes.

A surprise wild-card appearance would likely require nine or 10 victories and immediate contributions from Mendoza, Stukes, McCoy and Zuhn. Las Vegas would also need a healthier offensive line than it had in 2025.

If the Raiders unexpectedly qualify, they would probably enter as the seventh seed and face one of the AFC’s strongest teams on the road. Their running game and pass rush could make the matchup competitive, but a deep run would be highly unlikely.

Overall verdict

The Raiders finally have the structure of a coherent rebuilding team.

Their greatest strengths are:

• Fernando Mendoza’s long-term quarterback potential.
• Kirk Cousins’ experience.
• Ashton Jeanty’s contact balance and explosiveness.
• Brock Bowers as an elite receiving tight end.
• Tyler Linderbaum at center.
• Kolton Miller when healthy.
• Maxx Crosby’s disruptive ability.
• Kwity Paye’s complete edge play.
• Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker at linebacker.
• Taron Johnson in the slot.
• AJ Cole’s punting.
• A deep 10-player draft class.

The principal risks are:

• Cousins’ age and declining mobility.
• Mendoza’s normal rookie development.
• No established No. 1 wide receiver.
• Uncertainty at three offensive-line positions.
• Miller and Powers-Johnson’s recent injuries.
• No proven elite interior defensive lineman.
• Limited established outside-corner production.
• Heavy reliance on rookie defensive backs.
• New offensive and defensive systems.
• A brutal midseason schedule.
• Playing in the AFC West.

Final forecast: 7-10, fourth in the AFC West and outside the playoffs.

Las Vegas should be far more competitive than it was during its 3-14 season. The offense has a legitimate identity built around Jeanty, Bowers and Kubiak’s play-action system, while the defense has enough front-seven talent to challenge quality opponents.

The most important outcome is Mendoza’s development. A seven-win season accompanied by evidence that he can become the franchise quarterback would represent meaningful progress. A rushed transition behind an unstable offensive line would place the rebuild back in a much more uncertain position.