2026 Washington Commanders Season Outlook

The Washington Commanders enter the 2026 season attempting to recapture the trajectory that made them one of the NFL’s fastest-rising teams two years ago.

Washington fell to 5-12 in 2025 after injuries affected Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, the offensive line, defensive front and secondary. Daniels missed several games and was held out for the final four contests, while McLaurin missed approximately half the season with a groin injury. The defense finished last in total yards allowed, 30th against the run, 28th against the pass and 27th in scoring defense.

The offseason response was aggressive.

Washington retained Marcus Mariota, extended Laremy Tunsil and re-signed guard Chris Paul. It then added Odafe Oweh, Charles Omenihu, K’Lavon Chaisson, Leo Chenal, Tim Settle, Amik Robertson, Ahkello Witherspoon and Nick Cross to a defense now coordinated by Daronte Jones. The Commanders also signed running backs Rachaad White and Jerome Ford, receiver Van Jefferson and tight end Chig Okonkwo.

The draft centered on linebacker Sonny Styles, selected seventh overall, and receiver Antonio Williams. Washington is betting that greater athleticism, a healthier Daniels and a more balanced offense can restore the team to playoff contention.

This is a credible bounce-back candidate. It is not yet a complete contender because the defense must replace poor 2025 performance with numerous new starters and the offense remains heavily dependent on Daniels and McLaurin.

Offense

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels remains the reason Washington can reasonably expect a rapid turnaround.

Daniels’ second season was interrupted by multiple injuries, and the Commanders eventually removed him from the final four games. General manager Adam Peters said during the offseason that Daniels was fully healthy and had been training without lingering restrictions.

A healthy Daniels gives Washington several advantages:

• Exceptional scrambling and designed-run value.
• Accurate intermediate passing.
• The ability to attack outside the pocket.
• Strong deep-ball touch.
• Natural feel for avoiding free rushers.
• The capacity to turn failed plays into first downs.
• Red-zone stress through both passing and rushing.

The offensive structure is changing under David Blough.

Washington plans to place Daniels under center more frequently and create a more balanced attack through play-action. That is a meaningful adjustment because Daniels has spent most of his college and professional career operating from shotgun. The goal is to make the offense less predictable while giving him cleaner throwing opportunities.

Under-center work should help Washington:

• Create stronger play-action fakes.
• Improve the downhill running game.
• Use Daniels on bootlegs.
• Reduce the burden of conventional dropback passing.
• Make defenses defend every portion of the formation.
• Generate easier intermediate throws to McLaurin and Okonkwo.

The risk is transition time. Daniels must become comfortable with new footwork and turning his back to the defense during play-action. The offensive line must also communicate effectively in a system that may feature more varied run concepts.

Marcus Mariota returns as one of the league’s more capable backups. His athleticism allows Washington to retain much of the quarterback-run and movement-passing package if Daniels misses limited time.

Sam Hartman and seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis provide developmental depth. Washington’s draft investment in Kaliakmanis was modest and does not indicate uncertainty about Daniels’ long-term position.

Quarterback is an obvious strength when Daniels is available. Washington’s entire projection changes if he again misses a substantial portion of the season.

Running back

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has the first opportunity to become Washington’s lead runner.

Croskey-Merritt rushed for 805 yards despite making only seven starts as a rookie. He averaged close to five yards per attempt and led the league in rushing success rate, producing the required percentage of yards for a successful play on 53.7 percent of his carries.

His strengths include:

• Vision through interior congestion.
• Decisive one-cut movement.
• Burst once he reaches the second level.
• Contact balance.
• Enough speed to create explosive gains.
• Efficiency without requiring a perfectly blocked play.

The Commanders believe he can handle greater responsibility, but the backfield is unlikely to become a one-player operation.

Rachaad White provides receiving and pass-protection experience. He can align in the backfield or slot, handle checkdowns and give Daniels a reliable third-down option.

Jerome Ford supplies open-field speed and another capable receiving profile. He should compete with White for complementary work and could become especially useful on screens and outside runs.

Sixth-round rookie Kaytron Allen provides the power element. Allen became Penn State’s all-time leading rusher and was drafted to convert short-yardage opportunities and produce difficult yards after contact.

The likely distribution is:

• Croskey-Merritt as the primary early-down runner.
• White receiving significant passing-down work.
• Ford contributing as a speed and receiving option.
• Allen handling short-yardage and physical series.
• Daniels remaining an important part of the rushing attack.

Washington ranked fourth in rushing yards per game and ninth in attempts during 2025, but the team’s third-down conversion rate fell from 45.6 percent to 37.6 percent. The objective is not merely accumulating rushing yards. The Commanders need the running game to create more manageable third downs and reduce the physical burden on Daniels.

Wide receiver

Terry McLaurin remains the clear No. 1 receiver and one of the most important players on the roster.

McLaurin missed approximately half of 2025 with a groin injury. Washington struggled to replace his speed, route running and ability to win against top cornerbacks. The early training-camp expectation was that he would return without significant limitations.

McLaurin gives Daniels:

• A proven vertical receiver.
• Dependable boundary route running.
• Contested-catch production.
• Strong sideline awareness.
• A target capable of defeating man coverage.
• A receiver who forces safeties to respect the deep portion of the field.

The larger question is what Washington receives behind him.

The current group includes:

• Third-round rookie Antonio Williams.
• Luke McCaffrey.
• Jaylin Lane.
• Van Jefferson.
• Treylon Burks.
• Dyami Brown.
• Chris Hilton Jr.
• Jacoby Jones.
• Several developmental receivers.

Antonio Williams is the most important long-term addition. He can align inside or outside and should have an opportunity to become a major part of the offense early. His route-running intelligence and ability after the catch fit an offense that needs more dependable production beyond McLaurin.

Van Jefferson provides veteran route experience and has operated in multiple offensive systems. His most likely role is as an outside rotational receiver who can help stabilize the group while Williams and the younger players develop.

Dyami Brown returns with vertical speed and familiarity with Daniels. Treylon Burks remains a physical upside option, although injuries and inconsistency have limited his career.

McCaffrey and Lane offer movement and special-teams value. Both should compete for slot and manufactured-touch opportunities.

The projected hierarchy is:

1. Terry McLaurin
2. Antonio Williams or Van Jefferson
3. The remaining Williams-Jefferson option
4. Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey or Treylon Burks
5. Jaylin Lane or a special-teams receiver

Washington has greater depth than it did at the end of 2025, but McLaurin remains the only established high-volume producer. The offense needs Williams to develop quickly or another veteran to emerge as a credible second target.

Tight end

Chig Okonkwo is expected to become the primary receiving tight end.

Okonkwo recorded at least 50 receptions in each of his final three seasons with Tennessee despite playing in offenses that struggled to generate consistent passing production. Washington intends to feature his movement ability, vertical speed and capacity to create yards in space.

Okonkwo can be used:

• As an attached tight end.
• In the slot.
• On crossing routes.
• On play-action boots.
• On screens and quick throws.
• As a seam threat against linebackers.

His athletic profile fits Daniels particularly well. When defenses commit an extra player to contain the quarterback, Okonkwo should receive opportunities in the intermediate middle of the field.

Ben Sinnott enters his third season as the young developmental complement. He can align as a conventional tight end, H-back or motion blocker and should receive a larger role after the departure of Zach Ertz.

John Bates remains the best traditional blocker in the group and should be important to Washington’s increased use of under-center formations and play-action.

Colson Yankoff, Lawrence Cager and Quentin Moore provide depth and special-teams competition.

The group is more athletic than last season’s version but less proven in high-leverage receiving situations. Okonkwo must show he can become more than an occasional explosive target.

Offensive line

Washington’s offensive line has the potential to become one of the better units in the NFC.

The projected starting group is:

• Left tackle: Laremy Tunsil
• Left guard: Chris Paul or Brandon Coleman
• Center: Sam Cosmi, Matt Gulbin or another interior candidate
• Right guard: Nick Allegretti or Sam Cosmi
• Right tackle: Josh Conerly Jr.

Tunsil remains the foundation.

Since 2022, he has earned one of the highest pass-blocking grades among NFL tackles and allowed pressure on only 3.1 percent of pass-protection snaps. Washington extended him during the offseason, ensuring Daniels retains a premier blindside protector.

Conerly enters his second season after being selected in the first round in 2025. His athleticism gives Washington the potential for a high-end young tackle pairing.

Chris Paul started most of last season after winning the left-guard job. He allowed only two sacks and graded particularly well as a run blocker, earning a new one-year contract.

Cosmi’s position depends on health and the center competition. He has previously played guard at a high level and gives Washington its best interior athleticism.

Allegretti offers experience and physicality. Coleman remains a valuable guard-tackle option after beginning his career at tackle.

Sixth-round rookie Matt Gulbin enters the center competition, while Andrew Wylie, Trent Scott and Foster Sarell supply veteran depth.

The major concern is center and interior continuity following Tyler Biadasz’s release.

If Washington identifies a stable center and Conerly develops, this line can protect Daniels effectively and create the physical running game the new offense wants. If center remains unsettled, pressure through the middle could disrupt the expanded under-center and play-action package.

Defense

Defensive transition

The defense is undergoing a major schematic and personnel reset under Daronte Jones.

Washington’s 2025 performance was unacceptable:

• 141.8 rushing yards allowed per game.
• 242.5 passing yards allowed per game.
• 384 total yards allowed per game.
• 26.5 points allowed per game.
• Last in total defense.
• 30th against the run.
• 28th against the pass.

The Commanders still generated 42 sacks, tied for 12th, showing that the unit was capable of creating occasional negative plays. Its larger problem was down-to-down reliability. Washington went 0-11 when allowing at least 25 points and 1-10 when surrendering more than 360 yards.

Jones inherits a defense that is younger, faster and deeper, particularly at linebacker and edge rusher.

Defensive line

Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton remain the interior players with the highest expectations.

Payne has the strength and athletic ability to create interior pressure while defending multiple gaps. Washington needs a more consistent season from him because the run defense cannot function if the tackles are regularly displaced.

Newton remains a potential breakout player. His quickness and penetrating style make him a natural passing-down disruptor, although he must become more dependable against physical rushing attacks.

The offseason additions include:

• Tim Settle Jr.
• Charles Omenihu.
• Deatrich Wise Jr. returning from injury.
• Javon Kinlaw.
• Shy Tuttle.
• Additional developmental linemen.

Settle was added specifically to help improve the interior run defense. Wise is another important piece because he can set a strong edge and prevent running plays from escaping outside. Washington’s training-camp preview identified both as central figures in fixing a unit that allowed nearly five yards per rushing attempt.

Omenihu can play end in base fronts and reduce inside on passing downs. His length and versatility should help Washington create more varied pressure combinations.

Kinlaw supplies size and athletic potential but has not always produced consistently.

The defensive line is deeper, but its performance still depends on Payne and Newton. Washington cannot solve its run-defense problem exclusively through veteran rotation players.

Edge rushers

Odafe Oweh is the most important defensive addition.

Oweh gives Washington an explosive athlete capable of rushing from a wide alignment, pursuing quarterbacks and contributing against outside runs. His presence should allow the Commanders to generate pressure without depending upon constant blitzing.

K’Lavon Chaisson provides another athletic rusher and is coming off improved production. Charles Omenihu can move outside, while Dorance Armstrong returns as an experienced rotational end.

The draft added Joshua Josephs in the fifth round. Josephs should begin as a developmental pass rusher and special-teams contributor.

The likely rotation includes:

• Oweh as the primary edge threat.
• Armstrong as the experienced complement.
• Chaisson in pressure packages.
• Omenihu moving between end and tackle.
• Josephs and younger players developing behind them.

Washington produced a respectable sack total in 2025 despite its overall defensive struggles. The challenge is creating pressure earlier in downs and preventing quarterbacks from consistently attacking favorable coverage after the rush fails to arrive.

Oweh does not need to lead the league in sacks. He needs to force protection adjustments and give the secondary fewer extended coverage situations.

Linebacker

Linebacker may be the most dramatically improved position on the roster.

Washington added Leo Chenal and selected Sonny Styles seventh overall. They join Frankie Luvu, Jordan Magee and several developmental players.

Chenal brings physicality, run defense and championship experience. Since entering the league, he has graded as one of the NFL’s better linebackers and gives Washington a player capable of taking on blocks rather than relying entirely on pursuit.

Styles is the future centerpiece.

At approximately 6-foot-4 with unusual range and movement skill, he can potentially contribute as:

• A traditional linebacker.
• A pressure player.
• A spy against mobile quarterbacks.
• A matchup defender against tight ends.
• An overhang defender.
• A movable piece in sub-packages.

Luvu remains the group’s most disruptive veteran. He can rush, defend the run and create confusion through varied alignment.

The likely structure is:

• Chenal handling substantial early-down work.
• Luvu moving throughout the front.
• Styles receiving immediate packages and eventually a starting role.
• Magee competing for rotational and coverage snaps.
• Nick Bellore providing leadership and special-teams value.

This group has the size and speed to improve Washington’s defense dramatically. It also faces considerable communication responsibility in a new scheme.

Cornerback

The cornerback room has depth but no established shutdown player.

Mike Sainristil remains the most important returning corner. He intercepted four passes in 2025 but produced uneven results after injuries forced him from the slot to the perimeter. Washington must decide whether his greatest value comes outside or in the nickel role where he initially appeared most comfortable.

Trey Amos enters his second season with a clear opportunity to become a long-term outside starter.

Amik Robertson adds toughness, nickel experience and aggressive coverage. Ahkello Witherspoon provides length and veteran boundary experience.

Washington also added Rasul Douglas shortly before training camp, giving the secondary another experienced outside defender with takeaway ability.

The primary competition includes:

• Sainristil.
• Amos.
• Robertson.
• Witherspoon.
• Douglas.
• Darius Rush.
• Tre Hawkins III.
• Several developmental corners.

A plausible configuration is:

• Amos and Douglas or Witherspoon outside.
• Sainristil or Robertson in the slot.
• The remaining veterans rotating by matchup.

The room has more options than it did in 2025. The difficulty will be determining the best roles quickly enough to avoid another season of constant position changes.

Safety

Quan Martin remains the leading returning safety.

Martin’s range and versatility allow him to align deep, rotate into the slot and contribute closer to the line. Washington needs him to become a more consistent communication leader as the secondary integrates new corners.

Nick Cross was one of the most notable free-agent additions. He brings speed, starting experience and physicality and should compete for an immediate starting position.

Jeremy Reaves remains a core special-teams player and reserve safety. Will Harris provides veteran experience, while Percy Butler, Tyler Owens and several younger players compete for rotational roles.

The likely pairing is Martin and Cross, with Reaves, Harris and others entering in sub-packages.

The group is athletic and capable of playing interchangeable assignments. It lacks an established elite deep-field playmaker, placing additional importance on the pass rush and cornerback communication.

Special teams

Tress Way remains one of Washington’s most dependable players.

Way’s directional punting, placement and experience give the Commanders stable field-position production. Washington extended him before the season, preserving continuity in one of the roster’s strongest areas.

Jake Moody is the leading kicker, with undrafted rookie Drew Stevens providing competition.

Moody has significant leg strength but has experienced consistency problems. Washington needs him to stabilize routine kicks because the team may play numerous close games.

Tyler Ott returns as long snapper.

The return competition could include:

• Jaylin Lane.
• Luke McCaffrey.
• Dyami Brown.
• Rachaad White.
• Jerome Ford.
• Other reserve receivers and defensive backs.

Lane has an especially clear route to the active roster through punt returns and coverage work.

Punter is a strength. Kicker and returner remain less certain.

Most important offseason additions

• EDGE Odafe Oweh: Primary edge-rush addition.
• LB Leo Chenal: Physical run defender and experienced linebacker.
• LB Sonny Styles: Seventh overall selection and potential defensive centerpiece.
• DL Charles Omenihu: Versatile front-four defender.
• EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson: Athletic pressure option.
• DT Tim Settle Jr.: Run-defense reinforcement.
• CB Amik Robertson: Nickel and outside flexibility.
• CB Ahkello Witherspoon: Experienced outside corner.
• CB Rasul Douglas: Late veteran secondary addition.
• S Nick Cross: Starting-safety candidate.
• RB Rachaad White: Receiving and pass-protection value.
• RB Jerome Ford: Speed and backfield depth.
• TE Chig Okonkwo: Leading receiving-tight-end candidate.
• WR Van Jefferson: Veteran receiver depth.
• WR Antonio Williams: Potential immediate No. 2 receiver.

Most important departures and changes

• RB Austin Ekeler: Veteran receiving and pass-protection production.
• RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Physical short-yardage runner.
• WR Deebo Samuel: Did not return after becoming a free agent.
• TE Zach Ertz: Veteran third-down and red-zone target.
• LB Bobby Wagner: Defensive communicator and experienced leader.
• EDGE Von Miller: Veteran rotational pass rusher.
• CB Marshon Lattimore: Released after an injury-affected tenure.
• C Tyler Biadasz: Released, creating an interior-line transition.
• Multiple defensive reserves: Replaced as Washington became younger and faster.

Wagner is the most significant leadership loss. Styles, Chenal and Luvu must collectively replace his communication and run-defense responsibilities.

Ertz is the most difficult offensive player to replace because Daniels trusted him in critical situations.

Draft-class outlook

Washington selected six players:

Round	Player	Position	Projected early role
1	Sonny Styles	Linebacker	Immediate defensive packages and starting role
3	Antonio Williams	Wide receiver	No. 2-receiver competition
5	Joshua Josephs	Edge	Rotational pass-rush development
6	Kaytron Allen	Running back	Short-yardage and physical rotation
6	Matt Gulbin	Center	Center competition and interior depth
7	Athan Kaliakmanis	Quarterback	Developmental quarterback

Styles will define the class.

As the seventh overall pick, he must eventually become more than a useful starter. Washington needs him to become a versatile defensive centerpiece capable of affecting the run, pass and pressure game.

Williams has the clearest offensive opportunity. The receiver room lacks an established second option, giving him a realistic path to significant targets during his rookie season.

Josephs should contribute first on special teams and in selected passing situations. Allen can fill the physical role vacated by Rodriguez.

Gulbin may be more important than his draft position suggests because the center job is unsettled.

Schedule assessment

Washington faces a difficult opening and one of the NFC’s more demanding opponent groups.

The Commanders begin with consecutive divisional road games:

• At Philadelphia.
• At Dallas.

They then host Seattle before playing Indianapolis in London. Washington returns home to face the Giants and then travels to San Francisco.

That opening six-game sequence includes:

• Two divisional road games.
• The defending champion Seahawks.
• International travel.
• A short turnaround after London.
• A Monday night road game against San Francisco.

The schedule remains challenging through the middle. Washington hosts Philadelphia and the Rams in consecutive weeks before facing additional games against Cincinnati and other AFC and NFC contenders.

The home schedule includes:

• Seattle.
• The Giants.
• Philadelphia.
• The Rams.
• Cincinnati.
• Houston.
• Atlanta.
• Dallas.

The opponent rotation includes the NFC West and AFC South, along with six NFC East games.

The largest scheduling concerns are:

• Two road divisional games to begin the season.
• International travel in Week 4.
• San Francisco shortly after returning from London.
• Seattle and the Rams.
• Houston and Cincinnati.
• Four games against Philadelphia and Dallas.
• Several opponents with strong defensive fronts capable of pressuring Daniels.

The schedule also contains opportunities against the Giants, Atlanta and several rebuilding AFC South teams.

Washington must remain competitive during the opening month. A 1-3 or 0-4 start could create pressure on a defense still learning a new system.

Final prediction

Projected record: 9-8

Projected NFC East finish: Third place

Philadelphia remains the division’s most complete roster and most likely champion.

Dallas has enough offensive talent and defensive upside to contend for a wild card, although Washington is capable of finishing ahead of the Cowboys if Daniels remains healthy.

The Giants remain the division’s weakest projected team.

Washington’s realistic range is approximately 7-10 to 11-6.

The upper end becomes attainable if:

• Daniels remains healthy for the full season.
• McLaurin returns to his established form.
• Williams becomes an immediate second receiver.
• Croskey-Merritt handles the larger rushing role.
• The center position stabilizes.
• Oweh produces consistent edge pressure.
• Payne and Settle improve the run defense.
• Styles becomes an immediate impact linebacker.
• Washington identifies a dependable starting cornerback combination.

The lower end becomes possible if Daniels again misses time, McLaurin’s health problems continue or the defense’s new personnel fails to correct the structural weaknesses from 2025.

Postseason probabilities

Outcome	Estimated probability
Make the playoffs	45%
Win the NFC East	16%
Earn a top-two NFC seed	5%
Win first playoff game	42% if participating
Win divisional round	23% if participating
Win NFC Championship Game	12% if participating
Win Super Bowl LXI	6% if participating
Overall probability of winning Super Bowl LXI	1%

These are analytical preseason estimates rather than sportsbook odds.

Most likely postseason result

The most likely outcome is a season spent near the NFC wild-card cutoff.

Washington has a credible playoff formula:

• Daniels creates explosive plays without excessive turnovers.
• The under-center and play-action package improves early-down efficiency.
• Croskey-Merritt and the backfield reduce Daniels’ rushing workload.
• McLaurin remains healthy.
• Tunsil and Conerly protect the edges.
• Oweh improves the pass rush.
• Styles, Chenal and Luvu transform the linebacker level.
• The secondary benefits from clearly defined roles.

The obstacle is defensive reliability.

Washington cannot reasonably return to the playoffs if it again ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing, passing and total defense. Even a rise to approximately league average would make the Commanders dangerous because Daniels can win high-scoring and close games.

If Washington qualifies, it would most likely enter as the sixth or seventh seed. Daniels’ mobility and McLaurin’s downfield ability could make the Commanders dangerous in one road playoff game.

A deeper run would require the defense to become substantially better than projected.

Overall verdict

The Commanders are a legitimate bounce-back candidate with an unusually wide range of possible outcomes.

Their greatest strengths are:

• Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability.
• Terry McLaurin as an established No. 1 receiver.
• Laremy Tunsil at left tackle.
• Josh Conerly Jr.’s developmental upside.
• A deep and varied running-back room.
• Greater receiving athleticism at tight end.
• Odafe Oweh’s edge-rushing potential.
• Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton inside.
• Sonny Styles’ rare versatility.
• Leo Chenal and Frankie Luvu at linebacker.
• A deeper cornerback rotation.
• Tress Way’s punting.
• Dan Quinn’s leadership after a difficult season.

The principal risks are:

• Daniels’ recent injury history.
• Heavy dependence on McLaurin.
• No proven second high-volume receiver.
• An unsettled center position.
• Learning a more under-center offense.
• A defense that finished last in total yardage.
• A run defense that ranked 30th.
• Replacing Bobby Wagner’s communication.
• No established elite cornerback.
• Numerous new defensive starters.
• International travel.
• Two divisional road games to open.
• Playing in a difficult NFC East and broader NFC playoff field.

Final forecast: 9-8, third in the NFC East and narrowly outside the playoffs.

Washington has enough upside to win 10 or 11 games and earn a wild-card berth. A healthy Daniels can elevate an offense with McLaurin, Tunsil and an improved running-back rotation.

The safer projection is nine victories because the defense must improve dramatically and immediately. The Commanders’ season will ultimately be decided by whether Styles, Oweh, Chenal and the rebuilt secondary can turn a last-ranked defense into at least an average one.