Early Elite MLB Pick Today 4/17

Elite MLB Pick: Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction

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Marlins Trying to Stop the Bleeding

The Marlins enter this game with an 8-9 record, but they’ve now lost three of their last five and appear to be slipping. After dropping the first two games of this series by scores of 10-4 and 6-2, Miami is clearly struggling on both sides of the ball. In Wednesday’s loss, the Marlins tied the game briefly in the fourth inning, but quickly gave up five unanswered runs and couldn’t recover. They managed seven hits in the game, with Matt Mervis and Otto Lopez each driving in one run. Starting pitcher Max Meyer allowed five hits and three earned runs, while reliever Richard Phillips gave up another three runs in just 1.2 innings.

Prior to this Arizona series, Miami did take two of three against the Nationals, but also lost two of three to the Mets. Their pitching staff carries a bloated 4.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP into this game, while opponents are hitting a comfortable .244 against them. Offensively, Miami is hitting a solid .251 with a .324 on-base percentage and has pushed across 71 runs so far this season. Mervis leads the way with six home runs and 12 RBIs, while Lopez has chipped in with two homers and nine runs driven in.

Edward Cabrera will get the start for the Marlins in this one. He has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in just 5.2 innings of work so far in 2024, but he’s yet to earn a decision and has not been stretched out deep into a game.

Red-Hot Diamondbacks Go for the Sweep

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on fire. They come into Thursday’s series finale with an 11-7 record and riding a four-game winning streak. In their 6-2 win on Wednesday, Arizona’s offense lit up again, launching four home runs and taking control in the middle innings. The Diamondbacks tallied nine hits in the win and were led by Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who went 1-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs. Starter Brandon Pfaadt delivered a strong outing, giving up just one earned run over 5.2 innings. Arizona’s bullpen shut the door from there, with Beeks, Miller, and Puk combining for a clean finish.

Arizona’s recent surge is no fluke. They took two of three from both the Brewers and the Orioles before coming to Miami. Their pitching staff owns a 4.19 ERA and a strong 1.16 WHIP, while opposing hitters are batting just .221 against them. Their offense, meanwhile, is clicking with a .259 average and .347 on-base percentage. Corbin Carroll has emerged as a major threat with six home runs and 16 RBIs already, while Geraldo Perdomo has added three home runs and matched Carroll with 16 RBIs of his own.

Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball today for Arizona. He’s 0-2 to start the year, but don’t let the record fool you—his 4.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP show promise, and he’s pitched better than the numbers suggest.

Trends to Watch: Totals & First Inning Bets

There are some sharp angles on the total for this game. Each of the Marlins’ last six day games against NL West opponents has gone over the total. Meanwhile, thirteen of the Diamondbacks’ last seventeen daytime matchups against National League teams have also gone over. With both lineups showing pop and questionable starting pitching, the over looks tempting again.

Interestingly, both teams have also been trending toward low-scoring first innings. Miami’s last six games have all gone under 0.5 runs in the first inning, while Arizona has seen that same “Inning 1 Under” trend hit in their last eight Thursday games against NL East opponents.

Diamondback vs Marlins Elite MLB Pick 4/17

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