2026 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Outlook

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2026 season trying to prove that last year’s dramatic rise was the beginning of sustained contention rather than a single exceptional season.

Jacksonville finished 13-4 in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach, won the AFC South and entered the playoffs as the conference’s No. 3 seed. The season ended with a 27-24 wild-card loss to Buffalo, but the larger story was Trevor Lawrence’s development and the emergence of a defense that finished first in the NFL against the run. Lawrence produced a franchise-record 38 total touchdowns—29 passing and nine rushing—and helped Jacksonville finish the regular season on an eight-game winning streak.

The Jaguars have retained most of the roster that produced that turnaround. Their most important losses were running back Travis Etienne Jr., linebacker Devin Lloyd and safety Andrew Wingard. Jacksonville responded by adding a physical veteran running back, re-signing several defensive contributors and assembling a 10-player draft class concentrated on tight end, defensive-line depth and developmental secondary talent.

The Jaguars should remain a playoff contender, but repeating 13 victories will be difficult. They will no longer surprise opponents, and the schedule contains five defending division champions, two London games and an early sequence against several AFC contenders.

Offense

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence enters 2026 with the strongest momentum of his NFL career.

Lawrence’s 2025 season represented the clearest evidence yet that he can become the quarterback Jacksonville expected when it selected him first overall. His 38 total touchdowns set a franchise record, and his improved efficiency helped the Jaguars produce an elite second-half offense.

The most encouraging aspect was not merely the touchdown total. Lawrence became more decisive within Coen’s system. He played with better timing, trusted the route structure and used his mobility more effectively in high-leverage situations. Coen’s use of motion, play-action and condensed formations created clearer coverage indicators without reducing Lawrence to a game manager.

Lawrence should now have greater command of the offense in his second season with Coen. That continuity matters because the Jaguars can expand the system rather than spending another summer installing its foundation.

The next step is postseason consistency. Lawrence must continue reducing the stretches in which a few inaccurate throws, sacks or forced decisions interrupt otherwise strong performances. Jacksonville’s defense is capable of keeping games close, but Lawrence will eventually have to outplay one of the AFC’s elite quarterbacks to lead the franchise beyond the divisional round.

Nick Mullens returns as the experienced backup, with Carter Bradley and undrafted rookie Joey Aguilar providing developmental competition. Mullens has extensive starting experience, but a prolonged Lawrence absence would substantially lower the team’s offensive ceiling.

Quarterback is a strength. The Jaguars’ larger offensive questions concern the running game, offensive-line health and Hunter’s availability.

Running back

Running back is the most uncertain offensive position.

Etienne left for New Orleans after producing 1,107 rushing yards, 292 receiving yards and a team-leading 13 touchdowns in 2025. Jacksonville must replace roughly 1,400 yards from scrimmage and a dependable three-down presence.

Bhayshul Tuten is the leading candidate to become the primary runner. Tuten showed breakaway speed and big-play potential as a rookie, but he has not yet demonstrated that he can handle an entire NFL season as the lead back.

The likely committee includes:

• Bhayshul Tuten as the explosive lead candidate.
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the physical and short-yardage option.
• LeQuint Allen Jr. as a receiving and third-down back.
• DeeJay Dallas as a reserve runner and return specialist.

Rodriguez rushed for 500 yards and six touchdowns on 112 carries for Washington in 2025. His familiarity with Coen from Kentucky should help him assimilate quickly, although he missed offseason work with an injury.

The backfield has complementary traits. Tuten supplies speed, Rodriguez supplies power and Allen offers passing-down versatility. What it lacks is a proven player capable of handling difficult protection assignments and producing consistently when the blocking is imperfect.

Jacksonville does not necessarily need one 1,200-yard runner. Coen can manufacture production through formation variety and a committee. The concern is whether the Jaguars can depend on the group in short-yardage situations and late in games when opponents know a run is coming.

Wide receiver

Jacksonville has one of the AFC’s deepest and most intriguing receiver groups.

Brian Thomas Jr. remains the player with the clearest No. 1-receiver ceiling. His speed, size and downfield tracking force defenses to devote safety attention to his side of the field. After an uneven portion of 2025, he appeared increasingly comfortable with Lawrence during offseason practices and enters 2026 as a popular breakout candidate.

Parker Washington led the Jaguars in 2025 with 58 receptions for 847 yards and five touchdowns. His quickness, route awareness and ability after the catch make him a valuable slot and movement receiver.

Jakobi Meyers gives the offense another reliable veteran route runner. Meyers was acquired during the 2025 season and became one of Lawrence’s trusted possession targets. His ability to defeat zone coverage and produce on third down balances Thomas’ vertical threat.

The wild card is Travis Hunter.

Hunter’s rookie season ended after a knee injury, and he remained in rehabilitation during the 2026 offseason program. He attended meetings and remained heavily involved mentally, but his physical availability and workload are still major variables entering training camp.

Jacksonville must decide how much two-way work Hunter should handle. His long-term value may be greatest as a full-time offensive playmaker with selected defensive packages rather than attempting to play nearly every snap on both sides.

At receiver, Hunter gives Lawrence:

• Another explosive vertical target.
• Exceptional ball skills.
• Movement and slot flexibility.
• A player capable of creating yards after the catch.
• A matchup that becomes more difficult when Thomas is double-covered.

The depth behind the top four includes Tim Patrick and rookies Josh Cameron and CJ Williams. Cameron and Williams were selected in the sixth round and will compete primarily for developmental and special-teams roles.

When Hunter is healthy, the Thomas-Hunter-Meyers-Washington combination gives Jacksonville answers against nearly every coverage structure. The risk is that the group becomes less imposing if Hunter’s recovery is delayed or Thomas does not progress into a consistent high-volume receiver.

Tight end

Brenton Strange has developed into one of the offense’s most valuable and complete players.

Strange caught a career-high 46 passes for 540 yards and three touchdowns in 2025 while establishing himself as a reliable target and one of the league’s better blocking tight ends. Jacksonville rewarded him with a contract extension before the 2026 season.

The Jaguars then used their first 2026 draft selection on Texas A&M tight end Nate Boerkircher and added Houston tight end Tanner Koziol in the fifth round.

Boerkircher is expected to contribute early as a blocker and physical attached tight end. His presence may allow Jacksonville to move Strange into more receiving situations rather than asking him to handle every difficult blocking assignment.

Koziol offers more developmental receiving value and gives the Jaguars another option in multiple-tight-end packages.

Quintin Morris also returns after making five starts in 2025.

The depth of the group allows Coen to operate with:

• Traditional three-receiver personnel.
• Two-tight-end formations with Strange moving into the slot.
• Three-tight-end packages designed to create run-pass uncertainty.
• Extra protection against elite pass rushes.
• Play-action concepts that place linebackers in conflict.

Tight end may not produce spectacular individual statistics, but it could become central to the offensive identity.

Offensive line

The offensive line improved substantially in 2025 but enters 2026 with one significant health question.

The projected starting group is:

• Left tackle: Cole Van Lanen, when healthy
• Left guard: Ezra Cleveland
• Center: Robert Hainsey
• Right guard: Patrick Mekari
• Right tackle: Anton Harrison

The Jaguars allowed two or fewer quarterback hits in six games last season and went 6-0 in those contests. They also produced five games without allowing a sack, illustrating how effectively Lawrence can operate when protected.

Van Lanen emerged as the preferred long-term left tackle late last season, but he is returning from injury and was identified by Jaguars observers as one of the team’s major preseason concerns. Walker Little is the experienced alternative.

Cleveland, Hainsey and Mekari provide veteran stability inside. Hainsey is particularly important because of his communication responsibilities and familiarity with Coen’s offense.

Harrison enters a pivotal fourth season. He started 15 games in 2025 and was part of a line that frequently kept Lawrence clean, but the Jaguars still need greater week-to-week consistency from him against elite edge rushers.

Third-round rookie Emmanuel Pregnon gives Jacksonville a powerful developmental interior lineman. Wyatt Milum and Jonah Monheim also return after being drafted in 2025, creating better young depth than the team has carried in recent seasons.

At full strength, this can be an above-average line. The concern is tackle depth. Jacksonville’s difficult early schedule includes several defenses capable of exposing any instability at left tackle.

Defense

Defensive identity

Jacksonville’s defense was one of the NFL’s most improved units in 2025.

The Jaguars led the league in rushing defense at 85.6 yards allowed per game and created 31 takeaways. Their front controlled the line of scrimmage, while the secondary improved as the year progressed.

The goal for 2026 is to maintain that run-defense standard while generating more pressure through the middle. Jacksonville totaled 32 sacks last season and did not have an individual player reach double digits. The edge defenders frequently generated pressure, but quarterbacks were sometimes able to step forward and escape it.

Edge rushers

Josh Hines-Allen remains the defense’s premier pass rusher.

Hines-Allen led the team with eight sacks, 28 quarterback hits and 80 pressures in 2025. His pressure total ranked near the top of the league even though the sack total did not completely reflect the frequency with which he disrupted quarterbacks.

Travon Walker is the other foundational edge defender. Walker recorded only 3.5 sacks last season but played through knee and wrist injuries after posting double-digit sacks in both 2023 and 2024. A healthier Walker could return to that level in 2026.

Jacksonville may also move Walker inside more frequently on passing downs. His size and power can create interior mismatches while allowing another speed rusher to align outside.

The depth behind the starters is young:

• B.J. Green II
• Danny Striggow
• Fourth-round rookie Wesley Williams
• Seventh-round rookie Zach Durfee
• Dennis Gardeck in selected pressure packages

Williams and Durfee add developmental athleticism, but neither should be expected to become an immediate high-volume pass rusher.

The starting pair is excellent. The question is whether the Jaguars can generate enough rotational pressure to keep Hines-Allen and Walker fresh for the postseason.

Interior defensive line

DaVon Hamilton anchors one of the NFL’s strongest run-defending interiors.

Hamilton produced the best season of his career in 2025 and was central to Jacksonville’s No. 1 rushing defense. Arik Armstead added 5.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss while providing veteran leadership and passing-down disruption.

The rotation also includes:

• Maason Smith
• Matt Dickerson
• Ruke Orhorhoro
• Third-round rookie Albert Regis
• Other developmental interior linemen

Regis was selected 81st overall and should enter the rotation quickly. His compact frame and quickness give Jacksonville another possible source of interior penetration.

Smith remains a high-upside player who has yet to establish a consistent role. A significant third-year step from him would raise the defense’s ceiling.

The Jaguars do not need their tackles to accumulate huge sack totals. They need enough push to prevent quarterbacks from escaping Hines-Allen and Walker by stepping into a clean pocket.

Linebacker

Foyesade Oluokun remains the leader and communication center of the defense.

Oluokun recorded 143 tackles, 11 passes defensed, two forced fumbles and an interception in 2025. His six consecutive 100-tackle seasons illustrate his durability and extraordinary production.

The major change is the departure of Devin Lloyd, who signed with Carolina. Lloyd was one of Jacksonville’s most important takeaway producers and had developed into a more dependable coverage linebacker.

Ventrell Miller is the leading candidate for a larger role beside Oluokun. Miller brings physicality and prior starting experience but must prove that he can replace Lloyd’s coverage and ball production.

Dennis Gardeck returns after recording 2.5 sacks, six tackles for loss and 37 tackles in 2025. He can align as an off-ball linebacker, pressure player and core special-teams contributor.

Jack Kiser, Branson Combs and seventh-round rookie Parker Hughes provide depth.

The group should remain sound against the run because Oluokun is rarely out of position and the defensive line keeps blockers away from the second level. Passing-game coverage is the concern. Opponents may test Miller and the supporting linebackers with tight ends and receiving backs.

Cornerback

Jacksonville’s cornerback room improved dramatically over the course of 2025 but enters 2026 with several moving parts.

Montaric Brown earned a three-year extension after starting 12 games, intercepting two passes and leading the team with 12 passes defensed. He enters the season as one of the projected outside starters.

Jourdan Lewis provides veteran slot experience and communication, although he underwent foot surgery late last season. His recovery and availability are important because he functions as one of the secondary’s leaders.

Jarrian Jones is another slot and outside candidate, while Christian Braswell and Keith Taylor provide depth.

Travis Hunter’s defensive role remains uncertain. He started two games at cornerback as a rookie before suffering the knee injury. Jacksonville may use him in selected coverage packages rather than counting on him as an every-down starter while he also carries an offensive role.

Third-round rookie Jalen Huskey was officially listed as a safety after being drafted but has enough coverage experience and size to contribute in several secondary roles.

The group has depth and versatility, but it does not have one established shutdown outside corner. The scheme will work best when the pass rush prevents receivers from extending their routes.

Safety

Safety is transitioning after Andrew Wingard signed with Arizona.

Wingard started 16 games and finished second on the team with 84 tackles and nine passes defensed. His departure removes reliability, communication and experience.

Eric Murray returns as a veteran leader after recording 53 tackles, an interception and six passes defensed in 2025. Antonio Johnson is expected to receive another opportunity to establish himself as a full-time starter.

The supporting group includes:

• Rayuan Lane III
• Caleb Ransaw
• Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig
• Trevian Thomas
• Rookie Jalen Huskey

Huskey could eventually become a starting safety or movable defensive back. His ability to cover and play from multiple alignments makes him a useful fit for a secondary that values interchangeability.

The room has athleticism but less certainty than last season. Communication between Murray, Johnson and the corners will be critical, particularly during the early schedule.

Special teams

Jacksonville has one of the league’s most stable specialist groups.

Cam Little returns at kicker. His range allows the Jaguars to consider long attempts and changes Coen’s decision-making near midfield.

Logan Cooke remains an excellent punter and holder. He averaged 48 yards per punt with a 43-yard net average in 2025, placing 22 punts inside the 20 and 10 inside the 10.

Ross Matiscik returns as the long snapper and remains one of the league’s most dependable players at the position.

Parker Washington is the leading punt-return candidate. DeeJay Dallas can contribute on kickoffs after averaging 30 yards on six returns late last season.

The Jaguars should remain strong in the kicking, punting and operation phases. Return production and coverage depth will depend on the final receiver, linebacker and defensive-back roster decisions.

Most important offseason additions

• RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Physical complement to Tuten and Allen.
• TE Nate Boerkircher: Second-round blocker with an immediate role.
• DT Albert Regis: Potential interior-pressure contributor.
• OL Emmanuel Pregnon: Developmental guard and future starting candidate.
• DB Jalen Huskey: Versatile secondary prospect.
• DE Wesley Williams: Rotational edge development.
• TE Tanner Koziol: Receiving depth in heavier personnel packages.
• WRs Josh Cameron and CJ Williams: Developmental receiver competition.
• DE Zach Durfee: Athletic pass-rush prospect.

Most important departures

• RB Travis Etienne Jr.: Signed with New Orleans after producing 1,399 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns.
• LB Devin Lloyd: Signed with Carolina after becoming a major takeaway producer.
• S Andrew Wingard: Signed with Arizona after starting 16 games.
• WR Dyami Brown: Reached free agency after making six starts.
• DE Emmanuel Ogbah: Departed after contributing to the edge rotation.
• Several veteran reserves: Jacksonville shifted some depth responsibilities toward younger draft picks.

Etienne is the most important offensive loss. Lloyd is the most difficult defensive player to replace because of his coverage production and takeaways.

Draft-class outlook

Jacksonville made 10 selections after entering the draft without a first-round pick:

Round	Player	Position	Projected early role
2	Nate Boerkircher	Tight end	Blocking tight end and heavy personnel
3	Albert Regis	Defensive tackle	Immediate interior rotation
3	Emmanuel Pregnon	Offensive line	Reserve guard and future starter
3	Jalen Huskey	Defensive back	Safety and coverage packages
4	Wesley Williams	Defensive end	Rotational edge development
5	Tanner Koziol	Tight end	Receiving depth
6	Josh Cameron	Wide receiver	Developmental outside receiver
6	CJ Williams	Wide receiver	Developmental receiver and special teams
7	Zach Durfee	Defensive end	Pass-rush development
7	Parker Hughes	Linebacker	Special teams and defensive depth

Boerkircher, Regis and Huskey have the clearest opportunities to play immediately.

Boerkircher’s blocking should help replace some of the physicality lost with Etienne while allowing Strange to run more routes. Regis can address the need for interior pressure, and Huskey enters a safety room undergoing transition.

Because Jacksonville traded its 2026 first-round pick in the 2025 move for Hunter, Hunter’s second season must also be considered part of the broader evaluation of this class. His health and development will matter more than any single 2026 rookie.

Schedule assessment

Jacksonville faces a difficult first-place schedule.

The Jaguars play five defending division champions and seven opponents that finished 2025 with winning records. They face the AFC North and NFC East in addition to their six AFC South games.

The opening sequence is demanding. Jacksonville begins at home against Cleveland, then faces Denver, New England and Cincinnati before playing consecutive London games against Philadelphia and Houston.

That creates five games against high-level or potentially high-level opponents during the first six weeks, followed by a Week 7 bye. The bye is well positioned after the two-game London stay.

The middle portion is more manageable, although the Jaguars must play Baltimore on a short week after facing Indianapolis.

The closing stretch includes Chicago, Pittsburgh, Houston and Dallas before games against Washington and Indianapolis. The road game at Houston could decide the AFC South, while the finale in Indianapolis may carry playoff-seeding implications.

Important scheduling factors include:

• Three defending division champions in the first five games.
• Consecutive London games.
• A Week 7 bye immediately after international travel.
• A Thursday road game at Baltimore.
• Difficult December games against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston.
• Three of the final four games away from Jacksonville.
• A first-place schedule after last season’s 13-4 finish.

Jacksonville has enough talent to navigate the slate, but expecting another eight-game winning streak or 13 victories would be aggressive.

Final prediction

Projected record: 10-7

Projected AFC South finish: Second place

Houston enters with the league’s best returning defense and greater recent postseason consistency. Jacksonville has the more explosive receiving ceiling and is fully capable of winning the division, but its uncertainty at running back, safety and interior pass rush gives Houston the narrow preseason advantage.

Indianapolis is dangerous if Daniel Jones is healthy, while Tennessee remains earlier in its development.

Jacksonville’s realistic range is approximately 8-9 to 12-5.

The upper end becomes attainable if:

• Lawrence continues his 2025 development.
• Hunter returns early and handles a meaningful offensive role.
• Thomas becomes a true No. 1 receiver.
• Tuten successfully assumes the lead-back position.
• Van Lanen returns without limitation.
• Walker returns to double-digit-sack form.
• Regis or Smith produces consistent interior pressure.
• The secondary replaces Wingard without major communication problems.

The lower end becomes possible if the running game becomes inefficient, Hunter’s recovery extends into the season or the offensive line suffers multiple injuries.

Postseason probabilities

Outcome	Estimated probability
Make the playoffs	62%
Win the AFC South	37%
Earn a top-two AFC seed	11%
Win first playoff game	51% if participating
Win divisional round	32% if participating
Win AFC Championship Game	20% if participating
Win Super Bowl LXI	11% if participating
Overall probability of winning Super Bowl LXI	3%

These are analytical preseason estimates rather than sportsbook odds.

Most likely postseason result

The most likely outcome is a wild-card berth followed by either an opening-round victory or a divisional-round exit.

Jacksonville can defeat a quality playoff opponent because Lawrence has become more dangerous, the receiver group can create explosive plays and the defense can force opponents into long-yardage situations by stopping the run.

The Jaguars’ postseason ceiling will depend on the pass rush.

Against the AFC’s elite quarterbacks, simply controlling the running game will not be enough. Hines-Allen, Walker and the interior linemen must generate pressure without requiring constant blitzing. Jacksonville also must avoid asking Lawrence to overcome an inconsistent rushing attack every week.

An AFC Championship Game appearance is possible, but it would require Lawrence to confirm his place among the conference’s elite quarterbacks and the defense to become more disruptive in passing situations.

Overall verdict

The Jaguars are a legitimate contender rather than an emerging rebuilding team.

Their greatest strengths are:

• Trevor Lawrence’s development within Liam Coen’s offense.
• An unusually deep receiving group.
• Brian Thomas Jr.’s star potential.
• Travis Hunter’s two-way upside.
• Brenton Strange’s complete tight-end play.
• Improved offensive-line continuity.
• Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker on the edge.
• The NFL’s best 2025 rushing defense.
• Foyesade Oluokun’s reliability and leadership.
• Stable kicking and punting.

The principal risks are:

• Replacing Etienne’s total production.
• Hunter’s recovery from a significant knee injury.
• Uncertainty at left tackle.
• Limited proven pass-rush depth.
• Insufficient interior pressure.
• Replacing Lloyd’s takeaways and coverage.
• Replacing Wingard’s communication at safety.
• No established shutdown outside corner.
• Consecutive London games.
• A difficult first-place schedule.
• Competing directly with Houston in a strong AFC playoff race.

Final forecast: 10-7, second in the AFC South and a wild-card berth.

Jacksonville should remain in the divisional race through the final weeks and has a realistic opportunity to repeat as champion. The most probable result is a wild-card appearance with approximately an even chance of winning the opening playoff game. The Jaguars’ ceiling is higher, but reaching it requires Hunter to return effectively, Tuten to stabilize the backfield and the defensive front to turn pressure into more sacks.