2026 Kansas City Chiefs Season Outlook

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2026 season attempting to prove that one disastrous year did not end the NFL’s defining modern dynasty.

Kansas City finished 6-11 in 2025, placed third in the AFC West and missed the playoffs for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. The result ended streaks of 10 consecutive postseason appearances, nine straight division championships and seven consecutive AFC Championship Game berths.

The season’s defining moment came in December, when Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee during the loss that eliminated Kansas City from postseason contention. He underwent surgery shortly afterward and spent the offseason attempting to return for the 2026 opener.

The Chiefs responded with one of their most aggressive roster resets of the Mahomes era.

Eric Bieniemy returned as offensive coordinator. Kansas City signed Kenneth Walker III, Khyiris Tonga, Alohi Gilman, Kader Kohou, Kaiir Elam and Emari Demercado. The Chiefs traded for Justin Fields, then dealt Trent McDuffie to the Rams for a package that helped produce two first-round selections.

Kansas City used those premium selections on cornerback Mansoor Delane and defensive tackle Peter Woods, then added edge defender R Mason Thomas early in the second round. The result is a roster that remains highly talented but is younger and less proven than the teams that reached five Super Bowls during the previous seven seasons.

The Chiefs’ outlook revolves around three questions:

• How closely will Mahomes resemble his pre-injury form?
• Can the offensive line protect him while he regains mobility?
• Can a young defense replace McDuffie without suffering a major coverage decline?

Offense

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes remains the reason Kansas City can never be dismissed as a championship contender.

Before the injury, Mahomes continued adding to one of the most accomplished starts to a career in NFL history. During 2025, he became the fastest quarterback to reach 300 combined regular-season and postseason touchdown passes and the fastest to surpass 35,000 regular-season passing yards.

His established strengths remain unmatched:

• Elite improvisational ability.
• Exceptional arm talent from unconventional platforms.
• Advanced understanding of defensive leverage.
• Pocket movement and pressure avoidance.
• Late-game decision-making.
• Deep familiarity with Andy Reid’s offense.
• The ability to elevate incomplete or injured supporting casts.

The central concern is no longer whether Mahomes can perform at an elite level. It is whether he can do so immediately after reconstructive surgery on his left knee.

Mahomes participated on a limited basis during offseason practices and was optimistic about returning for Week 1. The Chiefs eventually cleared him for training-camp participation, but being medically cleared does not necessarily mean his movement, acceleration and confidence will instantly return to normal.

His early-season game may look different.

Kansas City should emphasize:

• Quicker rhythm throws.
• More play-action.
• Stronger reliance on the running game.
• Fewer empty-backfield protections.
• More throws from firm pockets.
• Reduced designed movement.
• Greater willingness to throw the ball away.

Mahomes’ mobility has always been more functional than statistical. His ability to slide away from pressure, alter his launch point and extend third downs is a major component of the offense. Even a temporary reduction could make the protection look considerably worse.

Justin Fields is one of the NFL’s most intriguing backup quarterbacks.

Kansas City acquired him from the Jets for a future sixth-round pick. Fields gives the Chiefs a veteran with substantial starting experience, elite rushing ability and enough arm talent to preserve the offense’s vertical component.

Fields also gives Reid and Bieniemy options that previous backups did not provide:

• Designed quarterback runs.
• Read-option packages.
• Red-zone formations featuring an additional rushing threat.
• A credible temporary starter if Mahomes is not ready.
• A player capable of winning games without reproducing Mahomes’ passing style.

Fields is not as advanced as Mahomes in processing or anticipation. The offense would become more run-heavy and simplified with him, but Kansas City is better prepared for a quarterback absence than it was entering 2025.

Seventh-round rookie Garrett Nussmeier is the developmental option. His experience in a high-volume college passing offense gives him practice-squad or third-quarterback potential, but he should not be expected to play meaningful early-season snaps.

Quarterback remains a major strength because Mahomes is still Mahomes. It also represents the greatest source of uncertainty because no other player affects Kansas City’s championship probability as dramatically.

Running back

Kenneth Walker III was Kansas City’s defining offensive acquisition.

Walker joined the Chiefs after serving as Seattle’s lead runner and producing the championship performance that helped the Seahawks win Super Bowl LX. Kansas City signed him after its running backs ranked near the bottom of the league over the previous two seasons in rushing yards, yards per carry and explosive-run rate.

Walker brings qualities the offense has lacked:

• Immediate acceleration.
• Lateral elusiveness.
• Long-range scoring ability.
• The ability to create beyond the blocking.
• Receiving value.
• A credible threat on outside-zone runs.
• Enough strength to handle interior carries.

His presence should reduce the physical and mental burden on Mahomes.

Defenses previously could play light boxes, devote additional resources to coverage and trust that Kansas City would struggle to create explosive rushing gains. Walker forces linebackers and safeties to respect the backfield before the snap.

Bieniemy can build packages around:

• Outside zone.
• Inside zone with cutback opportunities.
• Screens.
• Draws against pressure.
• Play-action from under center.
• Motion that creates favorable box counts.
• Option concepts if Fields plays.

Emari Demercado provides receiving and passing-down experience. He should compete for the primary complementary role and may be particularly valuable during two-minute situations.

Fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson is another important addition. Johnson combines adequate size with receiving ability and should compete immediately for rotational touches and special-teams work.

The likely arrangement is:

• Walker as the lead runner.
• Demercado handling selected passing downs.
• Johnson developing as the long-term complementary back.
• Additional runners competing for short-yardage and special-teams roles.

Walker has experienced injuries during his career, so Kansas City should avoid treating him as a 350-touch player. The Chiefs need his explosiveness available late in the season rather than exhausting him while Mahomes is still regaining full mobility.

The backfield is substantially more dangerous than last season’s group.

Wide receiver

Kansas City’s receiving corps has speed, youth and significant uncertainty.

Rashee Rice remains the most complete receiver when healthy. His ability to win on slants, crossers and option routes makes him Mahomes’ most dependable high-volume target outside Travis Kelce. His rehabilitation and availability must be monitored closely entering the season.

Xavier Worthy provides the vertical and horizontal speed that changes defensive spacing. Kansas City can use him on:

• Deep routes.
• Jet motion.
• Screens.
• Crossing concepts.
• Stacked releases.
• Clear-out routes that create room for Kelce and Rice.

Worthy’s next step is becoming more than a speed-specific weapon. He must improve against physical coverage and become a dependable target on routine intermediate downs.

Tyquan Thornton was re-signed after catching 19 passes for 438 yards and three touchdowns in 2025. His production averaged more than 23 yards per reception, making him a useful complementary deep threat.

The remaining competition includes:

• Jalen Royals.
• Nikko Remigio.
• Skyy Moore or other returning developmental options.
• Fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen.
• Several undrafted receivers.

Allen was selected 176th overall after producing as both a receiver and return option in college. His clearest early route to the roster comes through special teams and manufactured offensive touches.

The projected hierarchy is:

1. Rashee Rice
2. Xavier Worthy
3. Tyquan Thornton
4. Jalen Royals or another young receiver
5. Cyrus Allen or a special-teams option

The room lacks an established physical outside receiver who consistently defeats press coverage. Kansas City instead appears committed to speed, motion and creating releases through formation.

That approach can work if Rice is healthy and Mahomes has time. It becomes more vulnerable if opponents disrupt the timing and force the receivers to win static one-on-one matchups.

Tight end

Travis Kelce returns for another season and remains central to the offense.

Kelce earned another Pro Bowl selection during Kansas City’s disappointing 2025 campaign. His raw explosiveness has declined from his peak, but his understanding of coverage, leverage and Mahomes’ improvisational tendencies remains extraordinary.

He still gives Kansas City:

• Elite zone awareness.
• Dependable third-down production.
• Red-zone experience.
• The ability to adjust routes after the snap.
• Leadership during Mahomes’ recovery.
• A matchup target against linebackers and safeties.

Kansas City should continue reducing Kelce’s routine workload.

His greatest value comes in:

• Third downs.
• Two-minute situations.
• Red-zone possessions.
• Late-season games.
• Playoff matchups.
• Plays requiring Mahomes and Kelce to adjust without verbal communication.

Noah Gray remains the primary complementary tight end and should handle more conventional in-line and intermediate work.

The Chiefs carried seven tight ends into training camp, reflecting both the importance of the position and the competition for blocking, special-teams and developmental roles.

Kansas City may increase its use of multiple-tight-end formations to:

• Help the offensive tackles.
• Improve the running game.
• Protect Mahomes.
• Create play-action opportunities.
• Reduce Kelce’s need to block defensive ends.
• Keep the offense flexible without relying on four-receiver personnel.

Tight end remains a strength, but the Chiefs need Gray and the younger players to absorb more regular-season work.

Offensive line

The interior offensive line remains one of Kansas City’s greatest strengths.

The projected core includes:

• Center: Creed Humphrey
• Right guard: Trey Smith
• Right tackle: Jawaan Taylor

Humphrey and Smith both earned Pro Bowl recognition for the 2025 season despite the team’s struggles. Humphrey remains one of the NFL’s premier centers, while Smith supplies exceptional power and durability at guard.

The largest questions remain on the left side.

Josh Simmons is expected to receive another opportunity at left tackle. His length and athleticism give him the physical profile to become a long-term blindside protector, but consistency and availability must improve.

Kingsley Suamataia and several other linemen are competing for left-guard and swing-tackle responsibilities. Hunter Nourzad provides interior flexibility after appearing in 28 games during his first two seasons.

Wanya Morris was traded to Atlanta during the offseason, further clarifying that Kansas City intends to develop a new left-side combination.

A reasonable projected lineup is:

• Left tackle: Josh Simmons
• Left guard: Kingsley Suamataia or another camp winner
• Center: Creed Humphrey
• Right guard: Trey Smith
• Right tackle: Jawaan Taylor

Taylor remains a powerful and experienced right tackle, but penalties and speed-rush matchups have periodically created problems.

The line must accomplish two things simultaneously:

• Protect a quarterback returning from major knee surgery.
• Create a better rushing environment for Walker.

The interior should remain excellent. Left tackle is the position capable of changing the entire offense’s outlook.

If Simmons becomes a dependable starter, Kansas City can again field a high-level line. If the Chiefs must repeatedly provide left-tackle assistance, the passing game will lose eligible receivers and downfield flexibility.

Defense

Defensive identity

Steve Spagnuolo remains one of the NFL’s best defensive coordinators.

His defense is built around:

• Disguised pressure.
• Defensive backs who can blitz and cover.
• Multiple fronts.
• Chris Jones’ alignment flexibility.
• Aggressive man coverage.
• Situational pressure packages.
• Forcing quarterbacks to identify the rush after the snap.

The 2026 defense is undergoing one of its largest personnel transitions since the beginning of the Chiefs’ championship run.

McDuffie is gone, several defensive backs have changed and three of Kansas City’s first four draft choices were used on premium defensive prospects.

Defensive tackle

Chris Jones remains the foundation.

Jones earned another Pro Bowl selection in 2025 and remains one of the NFL’s most disruptive interior defenders. He can align over a guard, center or tackle and remains capable of deciding games through pressure without recording a traditional sack.

His strengths remain:

• Exceptional first-step quickness.
• Power against guards.
• Interior pass-rush technique.
• Alignment versatility.
• Late-game pressure production.
• The ability to command double teams.

Kansas City invested heavily beside him.

Peter Woods was selected 29th overall after the Chiefs acquired the pick through the McDuffie trade. At approximately 6-foot-3 and 310 pounds, Woods can defend the run, penetrate and align throughout the interior.

Woods does not need to become an immediate star. He needs to:

• Hold his position against double teams.
• Create occasional interior pressure.
• Reduce the number of snaps Jones must play.
• Give Spagnuolo another movable lineman.
• Replace some of the defensive-line depth lost during recent offseasons.

Khyiris Tonga was added to provide size and early-down run defense. His role should be more specialized: occupying blockers, defending interior gaps and allowing Jones and Woods to attack.

The rotation also includes:

• Mike Danna.
• Omarr Norman-Lott.
• Fabien Lovett Sr.
• Additional young and developmental linemen.

The Jones-Woods combination has a high ceiling. The concern is relying on a rookie for substantial production while Jones enters another season with a heavy workload.

Edge rushers

George Karlaftis remains the most established edge defender.

Karlaftis combines power, effort and strong pursuit. He may never become the league’s most explosive speed rusher, but he can consistently compress the pocket and contribute against the run.

Kansas City used the 40th overall pick on R Mason Thomas.

Thomas brings a quicker, more explosive profile and should immediately compete for passing-down snaps. His early role may include wide alignments, stunts with Jones and Woods and selected pressure packages.

The remaining group includes:

• Charles Omenihu or other returning veterans, depending on final roster status.
• Mike Danna in inside-outside roles.
• Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
• Several younger edge defenders.

The preferred structure is:

• Karlaftis handling the most complete role.
• Thomas providing speed.
• Danna moving throughout the line.
• Jones reducing outside in selected packages.
• Spagnuolo supplementing the front with defensive-back pressure.

Kansas City does not have an established elite edge rusher. Its pressure success will depend on Jones creating protection problems and the younger players capitalizing on isolated opportunities.

Linebacker

Nick Bolton remains the leader of the linebacker room.

Bolton was named a Pro Bowl alternate after the 2025 season and continues to provide tackling, communication and playoff experience.

His strengths are most apparent against:

• Interior runs.
• Screens.
• Short-yardage plays.
• Quarterback movement.
• Rapidly developing underneath routes.

Drue Tranquill supplies greater coverage and pressure flexibility. He can play on the ball, rush through interior gaps and defend in space.

Jack Cochrane was re-signed and remains valuable on special teams and as a reserve linebacker.

The Chiefs entered camp with eight linebackers, leaving competition for rotational and special-teams roles behind Bolton and Tranquill.

The position is experienced but not especially deep. Kansas City needs Bolton to remain healthy and Tranquill to perform consistently in coverage.

Opponents may attempt to isolate the linebackers against athletic tight ends and backs, particularly while the secondary develops new communication.

Cornerback

Cornerback is the defense’s greatest source of uncertainty.

Kansas City traded McDuffie to the Rams for 2026 and 2027 draft capital. McDuffie had been a Pro Bowl-level player capable of defending outside or in the slot and was the secondary’s most dependable coverage piece.

The Chiefs used the ninth overall selection on Mansoor Delane.

Delane becomes one of the most important rookies on any AFC contender. Kansas City needs him to handle immediate starting responsibilities rather than developing slowly behind established veterans.

He brings:

• Size and physicality.
• Experience in press and off coverage.
• Route recognition.
• Ball skills.
• The versatility to play multiple coverage structures.

Jaylen Watson should remain one of the leading outside options when healthy.

The Chiefs also added:

• Kader Kohou.
• Kaiir Elam.
• Fourth-round rookie Jadon Canady.

Kohou has substantial slot experience. Elam brings former first-round physical traits and outside-corner experience. Canady can play throughout the secondary and has a strong chance to make the roster because of his draft status and versatility.

The projected primary alignment could be:

• Delane outside.
• Watson outside.
• Kohou or another competitor in the slot.
• Canady contributing in dime packages.
• Elam competing for boundary depth.

This group is talented but unproven as a unit.

McDuffie allowed Spagnuolo to call aggressive pressures with confidence that one receiver could be handled in isolated coverage. Until Delane proves capable of a similar responsibility, Kansas City may need to protect its corners more frequently.

Safety

Safety remains deep and versatile.

Chamarri Conner led Kansas City with 1,022 defensive snaps in 2025 and played extensively in the slot and box. His ability to perform several roles is particularly valuable during the secondary transition.

Jaden Hicks enters his third season with a strong opportunity to win a full-time starting position. He played 445 defensive snaps and remained one of Kansas City’s leading special-teams contributors in 2025.

Alohi Gilman was signed to provide experience and coverage versatility. He should compete for immediate starting work and can be used deep, in the box or in matchup assignments.

The likely leading trio is:

• Conner as the movable slot-box defender.
• Hicks receiving a larger traditional-safety role.
• Gilman providing experience and interchangeability.

Spagnuolo can use all three together and disguise which defender will rotate deep, cover the slot or pressure.

Safety may become the secondary’s stabilizing position while Delane and the other corners develop.

Special teams

Harrison Butker remains one of the NFL’s most experienced high-leverage kickers.

His history of postseason success gives Kansas City confidence in close games, although regular-season consistency and health should continue to be monitored.

Matt Araiza remains the leading punter and kickoff specialist.

James Winchester was re-signed at long snapper, preserving operation continuity.

The return competition should include:

• Xavier Worthy.
• Nikko Remigio.
• Cyrus Allen.
• Emmett Johnson.
• Several reserve defensive backs.

Kansas City should be careful with Worthy because his offensive role is too important to expose him unnecessarily. Allen and Johnson have clearer roster paths if they prove capable of handling returns and coverage assignments.

Special teams should remain stable, with returner representing the primary open competition.

Most important offseason additions

• RB Kenneth Walker III: Explosive lead runner and offensive-balance upgrade.
• QB Justin Fields: Starting-caliber insurance behind Mahomes.
• CB Mansoor Delane: Ninth-overall selection and immediate starting candidate.
• DT Peter Woods: First-round interior defender.
• EDGE R Mason Thomas: Early second-round pressure prospect.
• DT Khyiris Tonga: Interior run-defense reinforcement.
• S Alohi Gilman: Experienced starting-safety candidate.
• CB Kader Kohou: Slot-corner competition.
• CB Kaiir Elam: Outside-corner depth and developmental upside.
• RB Emari Demercado: Passing-down back.
• DB Jadon Canady: Versatile secondary prospect.
• RB Emmett Johnson: Developmental complementary runner.

Most important departures and changes

• CB Trent McDuffie: Traded to the Rams for premium draft capital.
• The previous running-back rotation: Replaced by Walker, Demercado and Johnson.
• Several veteran receivers: Kansas City became younger and more speed-oriented.
• Multiple defensive backs: The secondary has undergone a broad reconstruction.
• Offensive coordinator change: Eric Bieniemy returned to help restore physicality and accountability.
• Wanya Morris: Traded to Atlanta during the offensive-line reset.

McDuffie is the largest individual loss. Kansas City converted his trade value into Delane, Woods and additional capital, but those players must produce quickly for the deal to help the 2026 team.

Draft-class outlook

Kansas City selected seven players:

Round	Player	Position	Projected early role
1	Mansoor Delane	Cornerback	Immediate starting competition
1	Peter Woods	Defensive tackle	Major interior rotation
2	R Mason Thomas	Edge	Passing-down and rotational pressure
4	Jadon Canady	Defensive back	Slot, safety and special teams
5	Emmett Johnson	Running back	Rotational back and special teams
5	Cyrus Allen	Wide receiver	Receiver depth and return competition
7	Garrett Nussmeier	Quarterback	Developmental third quarterback

Delane will receive the most scrutiny because he is replacing the secondary’s best player.

Woods may become the class’s most important long-term player. Pairing an inexpensive young interior defender with Jones gives Kansas City a potential foundation beyond 2026.

Thomas has an immediate path to snaps because the defense lacks an established elite speed rusher.

Canady could play earlier than his draft position suggests. Spagnuolo values defensive backs who can cover the slot, play safety and blitz, and Canady offers that profile.

Johnson and Allen have direct special-teams routes while developing offensively.

Schedule assessment

Kansas City faces the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule based on its opponents’ combined 2025 record.

The Chiefs play nine games against teams that reached the previous postseason and are scheduled for six prime-time appearances.

The opening schedule is demanding:

• Denver at home on Monday night.
• Indianapolis at home on Sunday night.
• At Miami.
• At Las Vegas.
• Week 5 bye.
• The Chargers at home.
• At defending champion Seattle.
• At Denver.

The Week 5 bye is a major concern.

An early bye could help Mahomes if he experiences soreness or limitations during the first month. It also means Kansas City must play 13 consecutive weeks to finish the regular season.

The Chiefs face both Denver games before the end of Week 8. That makes Mahomes’ early health especially important because the Broncos are the defending AFC West champions and Kansas City’s clearest divisional obstacle.

The middle schedule includes manageable games against the Jets, Atlanta and Arizona, giving the Chiefs an opportunity to stabilize after the difficult opening.

The late schedule includes a three-game road stretch beginning with Buffalo on Thanksgiving night, followed by the Rams on another Thursday and an additional road game. Kansas City’s schedule includes the AFC East and NFC West, creating matchups against Buffalo, New England, Seattle, the Rams and San Francisco in addition to six AFC West games.

The largest schedule challenges are:

• Denver in Week 1.
• Two prime-time games to open.
• Both Denver games before November.
• Seattle on the road.
• An extremely early bye.
• Thirteen consecutive games after the bye.
• Back-to-back Thursday road games.
• Buffalo and the Rams during the late-season road stretch.
• Nine opponents that reached the 2025 playoffs.

The third-place schedule does provide some relief through games against Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Atlanta rather than every division champion. It is still a demanding slate.

Final prediction

Projected record: 10-7

Projected AFC West finish: Third place

Kansas City remains capable of winning the division.

The Chiefs have Mahomes, Reid, Jones, an improved running game and one of the NFL’s strongest competitive cultures. No opponent should assume the 6-11 season represents the franchise’s new normal.

Denver and the Chargers enter with fewer health questions and greater overall continuity. Denver won 14 games and reached the AFC Championship Game, while Los Angeles has an elite quarterback and an improved offensive structure.

Kansas City’s realistic range is approximately 8-9 to 12-5.

The upper end becomes attainable if:

• Mahomes is close to full strength by Week 1.
• Walker remains healthy.
• Rice and Worthy form a dependable receiving tandem.
• Simmons stabilizes left tackle.
• Kelce remains effective in a reduced workload.
• Woods and Thomas contribute immediately.
• Delane handles No. 1-corner responsibilities.
• Jones remains dominant.
• Kansas City reverses its recent close-game decline.

The lower end becomes possible if Mahomes’ mobility remains limited, the offensive line struggles or the new secondary allows too many explosive passes.

Postseason probabilities

Outcome	Estimated probability
Make the playoffs	61%
Win the AFC West	24%
Earn a top-two AFC seed	11%
Earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed	4%
Win first playoff game	51% if participating
Win divisional round	31% if participating
Win AFC Championship Game	20% if participating
Win Super Bowl LXI	11% if participating
Overall probability of winning Super Bowl LXI	3%

These are analytical preseason estimates rather than sportsbook odds.

Most likely postseason result

The most likely outcome is a wild-card berth followed by either a first-round victory or a competitive opening-round elimination.

Kansas City remains unusually dangerous as a lower seed because Mahomes, Reid and Spagnuolo have more high-level postseason experience than almost any possible opponent.

The Chiefs have a viable playoff formula:

• Walker creates offensive balance.
• Mahomes manages his mobility and avoids excessive contact.
• Kelce remains fresh for January.
• Rice and Worthy create yards after the catch.
• Jones controls the interior.
• Spagnuolo creates pressure through disguise.
• Delane develops quickly enough to survive isolated coverage.
• Butker converts close-game opportunities.

The primary obstacle is the AFC West.

Kansas City could be a good team and still finish behind Denver and Los Angeles. That would likely require the Chiefs to win several road postseason games rather than relying on Arrowhead throughout January.

A divisional-round appearance is the most probable positive outcome. Another AFC Championship Game run remains realistic, but it requires Mahomes to regain most of his pre-injury movement and the young defense to mature rapidly.

Overall verdict

The Chiefs remain dangerous, but they are no longer the AFC’s safest projection.

Their greatest strengths are:

• Patrick Mahomes.
• Andy Reid’s offensive adaptability.
• Eric Bieniemy’s return.
• Kenneth Walker III’s explosive rushing.
• Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
• Travis Kelce’s situational value.
• Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith inside.
• Chris Jones’ interior dominance.
• George Karlaftis’ dependable edge play.
• Nick Bolton’s communication.
• A premium defensive draft class.
• Chamarri Conner’s versatility.
• Steve Spagnuolo’s postseason defensive record.
• Extensive organizational championship experience.

The principal risks are:

• Mahomes returning from ACL and LCL surgery.
• Reduced quarterback mobility.
• Left-tackle uncertainty.
• Walker’s injury history.
• Kelce’s age and workload.
• No proven physical No. 1 outside receiver.
• Trading Trent McDuffie.
• Heavy reliance on rookie defenders.
• No established elite edge rusher.
• An inexperienced cornerback hierarchy.
• An early Week 5 bye.
• Thirteen consecutive games after the bye.
• Back-to-back late-season Thursday road games.
• Playing in an exceptionally strong AFC West.

Final forecast: 10-7, third in the AFC West and a wild-card berth.

Kansas City should rebound from its 6-11 season, but returning immediately to the top of the conference is not the safest projection. The Chiefs’ roster is younger, their quarterback is returning from the most significant injury of his career and the secondary must replace an elite player.

The most likely outcome is a dangerous wild-card team capable of winning in the opening round. The difference between that result and another Super Bowl appearance will be determined by Mahomes’ mobility, the left side of the offensive line and the immediate development of Delane, Woods and Thomas.