Friday gave us action across both Major League Baseball and college football, with four 5★ selections on the board.

The final tally was a strong one:

3 wins and 1 loss, with the only defeat missing by just half a run.

Here’s how each game played out.

Braves vs. Phillies Over 6.5 (-118) — 5★ WIN

Final: Braves 5, Phillies 2
Combined runs: 7

This one got there, but just barely.

Atlanta gave the Over an immediate boost by putting three runs on the board in the second inning. Austin Riley drove in the first run, Ha-Seong Kim followed with an RBI groundout, and Ronald Acuña Jr. added an RBI single to give Atlanta an early 3-0 advantage.

Philadelphia responded with Alec Bohm driving in a run in the bottom of the second before Bohm struck again with a solo home run in the fourth, cutting Atlanta’s lead to 3-2.

At that point, however, the scoring stopped for several innings.

Chris Sale did his part to keep Philadelphia quiet, allowing only two runs on six hits while striking out seven over six innings.

That meant we still needed two more runs to get the Over.

They finally arrived in the eighth.

Mauricio Dubón launched a two-run homer that extended Atlanta’s lead to 5-2 and pushed the combined score to seven runs, cashing our Over 6.5 ticket. Atlanta’s bullpen took it from there and closed out the 5-2 victory.

It wasn’t an easy Over, but that’s why getting the right number matters.

Result: 5★ WIN

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Cubs vs. Marlins Over 7.5 (-105) — 5★ LOSS

Final: Cubs 6, Marlins 1
Combined runs: 7

This was the frustrating result of the day.

The Cubs did enough offensively to put us in position, scoring six runs, but Miami never provided the second half of the equation.

Chicago opened the scoring in the second inning and gradually built its advantage. The Cubs pushed the lead to 3-0 in the sixth, including an RBI walk by Ian Happ and an RBI single from Nico Hoerner.

The problem for the Over was Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga delivered six strong innings and prevented Miami from turning the game into the type of back-and-forth contest we needed.

Even when the Marlins hit the ball hard, Chicago’s defense made plays. One of the biggest examples came when Pete Crow-Armstrong went to the center-field wall to take away what was nearly extra-base damage in the sixth inning.

Chicago eventually scored six, but Miami managed only one.

That left the final at 6-1 and seven combined runs.

Our number was Over 7.5.

We missed it by exactly half a run.

That’s sports betting. The handicap can put you close to the number, but there are going to be games where one more hit, one more bullpen mistake or one more run is the difference between cashing and tearing up the ticket.

Result: 5★ LOSS

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Blue Jays Moneyline (Even) — 5★ WIN

Final: Blue Jays 9, Royals 2

There was considerably less drama with this one.

Toronto jumped on Kansas City immediately.

The Blue Jays scored four times in the first inning, getting RBI singles from Alejandro Kirk and Kazuma Okamoto before Ernie Clement delivered a two-run double.

Bobby Witt Jr. answered with a solo home run for Kansas City in the bottom half, but Toronto came right back with another Kirk RBI in the second to make it 5-1.

From there, Toronto never relinquished control.

The Blue Jays continued adding to the lead and ultimately cruised to a 9-2 victory.

For bettors holding Toronto at even money, this was exactly the type of situation we’re looking for: a wager that offered an attractive payoff without requiring us to lay a heavy favorite’s price.

Instead of risking considerably more than a unit to win one, the Blue Jays gave us a full 1-to-1 return — and won the game by seven runs.

Result: 5★ WIN

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NCAAF

Toledo vs. Michigan State Over 46.5 (-114) — 5★ WIN

Final: Michigan State 30, Toledo 20
Combined points: 50

Our lone college football selection produced one of the more interesting finishes of the night.

Michigan State controlled much of the first half, building a 19-7 advantage.

But Toledo kept the game alive with explosive plays.

John Alan Richter connected with Adjatay Dabbs for a 60-yard touchdown in the second quarter, and the same combination struck again for another touchdown in the third.

That cut Michigan State’s lead to 19-14 entering the fourth quarter.

Then the game opened up.

Connor Walendzak broke loose for a 71-yard touchdown run early in the fourth, suddenly giving Toledo a 20-19 lead.

That was exactly what the Over needed.

Michigan State responded with a 5-yard touchdown pass from Alessio Milivojevic to Rodney Bullard Jr., followed by a successful two-point conversion that pushed the Spartans back in front, 27-20.

At that point the combined score had reached 47 points.

Our total was 46.5.

Ticket cashed.

Michigan State later added a 51-yard field goal to finish off a 30-20 victory, producing 50 combined points.

The game was especially interesting because Michigan State dominated possession — more than 43 minutes — while Toledo had only 41 offensive plays. Yet Toledo’s explosiveness created enough scoring opportunities to push the game through our number.

Result: 5★ WIN

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Friday’s Final Record: 3-1

The four 5★ selections finished:

✅ Braves/Phillies Over 6.5 (-118)
❌ Cubs/Marlins Over 7.5 (-105)
✅ Blue Jays ML (Even)
✅ Toledo/Michigan State Over 46.5 (-114)

That’s a 3-1 night, with the only losing play finishing half a run short.

More importantly, Friday demonstrated exactly what we’re trying to accomplish with these selections.

We’re not simply trying to predict which team is going to win.

We’re searching across moneylines, spreads and totals for situations where we believe the probability of winning and the potential payoff line up in our favor.

Sometimes that’s an even-money baseball underdog or short favorite.

Sometimes it’s a total.

Sometimes the best decision is staying away from a game entirely.

The objective is the same:

Find high-probability opportunities without sacrificing the payoff.

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